The war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is blocking the market outlet for about one hundred million barrels of crude oil, are certainly proving advantageous for the U.S. oil industry. Less positive, however, is the overall impact on the American economy, given the rise in fuel prices.
OIL AND FUEL EXPORTS SOAR
The increased demand for oil from Asian and European countries, which must compensate for the loss of supplies from the Persian Gulf, has turned the United States into a net exporter of crude oil for the first time since World War II. Similarly, international demand for fuels has pushed U.S. exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel (the fuel for airplanes, essentially kerosene) to record levels: last week the United States exported over 8.2 million barrels per day of fuels, 20 percent more than the same period in 2025.
U.S. OIL COMPANIES CASH IN; CONSUMERS, HOWEVER…
The increase in exports and high prices – Brent, the main international benchmark for crude, is above $101 per barrel – could allow American oil companies to record an additional cash flow of $60 billion in 2026, wrote the Financial Times. The oil & gas companies are earning more thanks to foreign sales, in short, but Donald Trump’s administration cannot celebrate: fuel prices are rising in the country, gasoline has reached $4.5 per gallon (the highest in four years), and the increase is weighing on consumers and businesses.
– For more: Who loses in the United States with the Gulf war
WILL TRUMP BAN EXPORTS?
Although not exposed to the risk of a disruption in crude supplies, being the largest producers in the world, the United States is still affected by rising prices, which impact fuel prices and ultimately the entire economy. Lowering the cost of living was one of President Donald Trump’s main promises, which he must consider ahead of the November midterm elections: essentially, his foreign policy is coming into conflict with domestic policy, and his approval rating is suffering negatively.
Some politicians have proposed banning oil and fuel exports in order to keep these fossil fuels at home and use them to stabilize prices. The White House has repeatedly stated it does not want to introduce such restrictive measures, but the situation is not rosy: gasoline could reach $5 per gallon and diesel stocks (essential for agricultural vehicles and goods transportation) are at their lowest levels in twenty years.
WHAT WILL THE SHALE OIL PRODUCERS DO?
Despite the rise in oil prices, American extraction companies specializing in so-called shale oil – which do not have the same scale as giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron – have been cautious: in the past they would have rushed to drill to take advantage of the favorable moment; today, however, they have indicated they want stability before investing in increasing output, fearing a drop in crude prices within a few weeks.
However, given the duration of the conflict so far and the damage to energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, even if the United States and Iran were to reach an agreement soon to end the war, oil prices would likely remain above $80 per barrel: a value much higher than in 2025, around $69, and sufficient to encourage new production.
In this regard, Diamondback Energy – one of the main shale oil companies – believes that oil producers will add up to thirty new wells in the Permian Basin – the largest oil field in the United States and one of the largest in the world – by the end of the year. This would represent an increase in activity of over 10 percent within the next eight months, reversing the three-year trend of declining new wells drilled.
