Libya continues to be one of the most intricate knots in the Mediterranean, divided for years between eastern and western factions that, despite the 2020 ceasefire, struggle to coexist.
In this complicated landscape, the United States is intensifying its efforts to mend internal divisions, with a keen eye on the country’s immense oil reserves.
The joint military exercise held in April in Sirte under American supervision represents a concrete step in this direction.
In a new report, Bloomberg has reconstructed this picture, focusing precisely on oil: its enormous potential, ambitions to increase production, and the political and economic difficulties that risk nullifying any progress.
Oil: the beating heart of Libya’s economy (and its tensions)
Since Gaddafi fell in 2011, oil has remained at the center of everything.
Before the revolt against the former dictator, Libya produced about 1.6 million barrels per day; today production hovers around 1.3 million, with the declared goal of reaching 2 million. An ambitious leap that would require investments of about 20 billion dollars in infrastructure, but above all political stability, which has so far been lacking.
Libya’s light, sweet crude is particularly valued in Europe, where Libya already sends about one million barrels per day. The reserves are the largest in Africa and the fields, especially in the Sirte area, are directly connected to the terminals of Ras Lanuf, Es Sider, and Brega.
The problem is that factions have repeatedly used oil as a weapon in their struggles for power and money. Blockades, strikes, and shutdowns have made production erratic. Just a few years ago, after a blockade led by Khalifa Haftar, it had collapsed to 90,000 barrels per day.
Even at the beginning of 2025, local movements in the Libyan Crescent threatened to stop a third of exports if the National Oil Corporation’s headquarters were not moved east. Recent clashes in Zawiya also forced the closure of the largest operating refinery.
In practice, without a lasting agreement between the parties, any production ambitions risk remaining on paper.
The American push and the return of US majors
Under the Trump administration, the US approach took a more explicitly commercial turn.
US Africa advisor Massad Boulos, visiting Tripoli in January, spoke clearly of American companies “betting on Libya’s future,” linking the Sirte exercises to the protection of the economy and sovereignty. Generals like John W. Brennan of AFRICOM emphasize how greater security reduces risks for Western investments.
The result is visible in the movements of the majors. ConocoPhillips signed a twenty-five-year agreement worth over 20 billion dollars together with TotalEnergies through the state company Waha Oil. Chevron obtained a new exploration block in the Sirte Basin in the first license since 2007, while Exxon Mobil is evaluating four offshore blocks after a long absence.
Eni, QatarEnergy, and Repsol have also acquired rights on areas estimated to contain 10 billion barrels already and another 18 billion yet to be discovered.
Interest grew further after Trump’s trip to the Middle East and Boulos’s active presence at energy conferences.
Sirte: symbol of a possible détente
It is precisely in Sirte – a symbolic city of Gaddafi’s fall, former ISIS stronghold, and frontline in the civil war – that the joint April exercise took place under US supervision, during which, for the first time, forces from the two rival factions trained together.
Present at the exercise were Saddam Haftar, son of the general controlling the east, and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Tripoli government, in a significant moment of national unity.
Alongside this, further signs of détente are recorded: greater sharing of counterterrorism intelligence, a joint operational command, and above all, the approval of a single national budget, the first in over ten years.
These steps, however, mainly serve to create the minimum conditions for the oil industry to restart with greater security. Without cooperation between east and west, it becomes impossible to protect fields, pipelines, and terminals.
Political resistance
Despite company optimism, obstacles remain deep. The American plan to merge rival authorities without elections was rejected by the High Council of State.
There is a deep-rooted lack of trust: in the east, Haftar has imposed a more orderly but authoritarian system, while in the west many militias and officials benefit from the fragmented status quo.
Militias are embedded in the state and physically control oil infrastructure, using crude as leverage in political negotiations. Even the National Oil Corporation struggles to exercise real control, with its eastern branches increasingly dominated by the Haftar family.
Analysts like Tim Eaton of Chatham House and Emadeddin Badi explained to Bloomberg that exercises and handshakes do not equate to a genuine will for reform. Factions can participate in American initiatives without relinquishing their power over resources and territories.
External influences – Turkey supporting Tripoli, Egypt, the Emirates, and Russia backing Haftar – further complicate the picture.
Outlook
In summary, Libya today represents a major gamble. For the United States, it is an opportunity to increase the global crude supply through diplomacy; for Europe, a nearby energy source and a possible brake on migration flows and Russian influence. For Libyans themselves, it is the chance to restart an economy that depends on oil for over 90% of its revenues.
The goal of 2 million barrels per day remains ambitious and depends on two uncertain factors: lasting political stability and massive infrastructure investments.
The last few months have brought encouraging signs, but recent history teaches that in Libya, progress often risks remaining only symbolic.
The real test, according to Bloomberg, will be to understand whether this new phase of American involvement will manage to turn economic interest into concrete change on the ground, or whether the now entrenched power dynamics will once again prevail.
