The mid-June agreement between the United States and Iran did not bring peace to the Persian Gulf: the two countries have resumed attacking each other and the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz – the most important waterway in the world for fossil fuel trade, and more – has been blocked again. The situation has therefore worsened again for European airports, which depend on the Middle East for supplies of jet fuel, the fuel for airplanes.
Usually, during the summer months, which represent the high season for air travel, Middle Eastern jet fuel covers a quarter of European demand. But with access to these supplies made impossible, or almost, by the war, Europe has had to replace them by increasing domestic production and resorting to imports from other parts of the world.
WHAT EUROPE HAS DONE TO MANAGE THE JET FUEL CRISIS
In the Old Continent there are few refineries – about seventy compared to over one hundred thirty in the United States and about three hundred in Asia – and the sector has been in crisis for some time. Nevertheless, last March European plants managed the not simple – for various technical reasons – operation of increasing jet fuel production: 1.3 million barrels per day, a record and 22 percent more on an annual basis, according to the International Energy Agency.
Moreover, Europe has increased imports especially from North America and Asia, and has drawn on its own stocks. These measures have mitigated the effects of the crisis in the Persian Gulf, but have not been able to solve the historic dependence on Middle Eastern shipments: currently – writes Reuters – the most vulnerable countries are France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
THE STOCK SITUATION AND THE RISK OF SHORTAGES
According to data from the consulting firm Energy Aspects, updated to June 18, Europe risks a jet fuel supply deficit of 600,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026; in the United States, on the contrary, a surplus of 116,000 barrels is expected and in the Asia-Pacific region of 425,000 barrels.
At the beginning of June, European stocks of aviation fuel amounted to 38 million barrels; US stocks, for comparison, were 99 million. According to Reuters calculations, Europe is thus able to cover its jet fuel demand for less than thirty days: this is the lowest level among the main global markets.
In June, the European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen, said that the Union would have to face a contraction of jet fuel stocks towards the end of the summer season and that, if necessary, the Commission would coordinate the release of national reserves.
EUROPEAN JET FUEL IMPORTS
In June, Europe imported 673,000 barrels per day of jet fuel, the highest value since October 2025. The countries that exported the most to the region were the United States and Nigeria, but also Canada, India, Kuwait (which before the war was one of the main European suppliers), and South Korea played a significant role.
Meanwhile, jet fuel prices in Northwestern Europe have fallen to 133 dollars per barrel, compared to the peak of 215.3 dollars recorded in March. Usually, fuel represents 20-25 percent of airlines’ operating costs.
HOW ITALY IS DOING
On paper, Italy should have been one of the European countries most vulnerable to the jet fuel supply crisis, since it depends on imports for 50 percent of its demand coverage. Instead – as explained by Unem, the association representing the oil refining supply chain – Italian refineries managed to produce more, reaching almost 70 percent of demand in March and April and allowing a 6 percent decrease in imports.
About half of Italy’s jet fuel production capacity belongs to Eni, the energy company controlled by the Ministry of Economy with a 33 percent share.
