According to the consultancy Wood Mackenzie, natural gas storage in European Union countries will be only 76 percent full in October, when the stockpiling period ahead of winter ends: this would be the lowest level since 2011.
THE IMPORTANCE OF GAS STORAGE
Storage, besides ensuring energy security, serves to reduce the need to purchase gas during the cold season, when there is high demand for heating fuel and prices rise. If European stocks really settle at the low levels forecast by Wood Mackenzie, consumers and companies in the Union could therefore face higher energy bills in the winter months, with all the consequences this entails for household purchasing power and economic competitiveness.
THE IMPACT OF THE WAR ON IRAN
After a particularly harsh winter, European countries started the storage replenishment phase – which usually begins in April – with a fill level already below average, at just 28 percent. Currently, the average level is 48 percent: the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran also plays a role, having complicated gas supplies and driven prices up. The conflict, in fact, caused the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a vital waterway for fossil fuel trade – and damage to several production facilities in the Persian Gulf region, such as the Ras Laffan complex in Qatar, which hosts the largest liquefied gas export plant in the world.
Currently, the gas price on the European market is about 40 euros per megawatt-hour, a value consistent with this time of year. However, last April, due to the war, the average price was around €45/MWh, significantly higher than the €35/MWh of April 2025: essentially, the economic incentive to fill storage was missing.
WHAT THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION THINKS
The European Commission maintains – as reported by the Financial Times – that “current storage levels do not raise immediate concerns for energy security,” and that a fill percentage around 80 percent “is sufficient to guarantee winter supply.” Brussels has also stated that the Union’s gas demand has decreased by 17 percent and that current stock levels are 10 percent lower than the average for the period before the Middle East crisis.
Already at the end of March – the war on Iran began on February 28 – the European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen had asked member countries to immediately start increasing gas stocks to prevent last-minute competition for supplies with other nations, which could further drive up fuel prices.
Jorgensen had also recommended lowering the storage fill threshold to 80 percent, ten points less than the target set by Brussels after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Recently, the commissioner said, “we need a high level [of storage fill, ed.] to ensure we are ready for next winter, but we want to do so in a way that does not cause price increases in the short term.”
THE LNG UNCERTAINTY
The situation for the European Union could improve if liquefied gas exporting countries in the Persian Gulf manage to quickly restore their facilities. Qatar, for example, has assured that its plants will return to normal within a few weeks, except for two units hit by Iran. But the timing is unclear, as is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz: the United States and Iran have reached an agreement that should restore freedom of navigation there, but last week a vessel was attacked.
And then there is Russia. Despite the detachment following the invasion of Ukraine, the country has remained a relevant energy supplier for the European Union, representing about 14 percent of the community’s liquefied gas imports. However, from January 1, 2027, purchases of this fuel from Russia will be banned.
On this matter, the manager of the Spanish port of Bilbao told the Financial Times that the European ban on Russian liquefied gas must be lifted, otherwise the Union risks becoming too dependent on the United States for energy.
The port of Bilbao is one of the main entry points for Russian liquefied gas into the European Union. Spain sources gas mainly from Algeria via pipeline; nevertheless, Russian fuel transported by ship accounts for almost 28 percent of national supplies.
At the European level, in 2025, 12 percent of gas imports came from Russia; the share from the United States was 26 percent, surpassed only by Norway’s 31 percent.
