The second quarter of the year could be the most profitable since 2022 for ExxonMobil and Chevron, the two largest US oil companies. According to calculations by the London Stock Exchange Group reported by Reuters, the profits recorded between April and June will prove to be more than triple those of the first quarter of 2026.
The comparison with 2022 is no coincidence: the war between the United States and Iran – with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the rise in fossil fuel prices – caused the second global energy crisis in the last five years, after the one following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
FORECASTS ON EXXON AND CHEVRON’S RESULTS
Forecasts from the London Stock Exchange Group say that in the second half of 2026 ExxonMobil recorded an adjusted net profit of 15.9 billion dollars, more than triple the previous period. Chevron’s adjusted net profit was also more than triple, at about 9.9 billion.
TENSIONS AHEAD BETWEEN BIG OIL AND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION?
But the excellent financial results of Big Oil could become a source of friction between the oil industry and Donald Trump’s administration, despite generally positive relations. At this moment, however, one of the White House’s priorities is reducing gasoline prices and the president is putting pressure on oil companies in this regard.
Lowering the cost of living was one of Trump’s main promises during the last election campaign, and today he cannot ignore it: midterm elections will be held in November and the Democratic Party could gain seats in the House by leveraging Americans’ discontent over the high cost of living. The problem for Trump is that his foreign policy, with the war against Iran, has conflicted with his domestic policy because it caused an increase in fossil fuel prices; consequently, the president’s approval rating has suffered negatively.
Even though the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to cease attacks, the situation in the Persian Gulf has not yet returned to normal. The same reasoning applies to the oil refining sector: although crude oil prices (the raw material) have fallen to around 70 dollars per barrel, far from the peak of 126 dollars in mid-April, gasoline prices (a derivative) have not yet normalized.
Nevertheless, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that if fuel prices do not drop significantly, the White House might take measures against oil producers and refiners.
HOW MUCH DOES GASOLINE COST IN THE UNITED STATES
Trump said he wants average gasoline prices in the United States to drop to 2.5 dollars per gallon: currently, they are much higher, around 3.8 dollars, equivalent to 0.8 euros per liter.
BETWEEN CRUDE AND DERIVATIVES
The oil industry defends itself against White House accusations by claiming it cannot fully control gasoline prices. The raw material, i.e., crude oil, accounts for almost half of the price consumers pay at the pump; the rest consists of refining costs, distribution costs, and taxes.
In the United States, crude oil prices have returned to pre-war levels (West Texas Intermediate, the American benchmark contract, is below 68 dollars per barrel), but gasoline prices remain 22 percent higher than the period before the conflict with Iran. It should be noted that crude oil is not the only raw material for gasoline: for example, refiners are required to blend in a certain amount of biofuel, a fuel equivalent to fossil fuel but derived from organic sources.
According to consulting firm Tph, in the second half the crack spread of gasoline in the United States – that is, the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of the derivative – averaged 25 dollars per barrel, compared to 16 dollars in the first quarter. For diesel, the crack spread rose in the same period from 15 to 45 dollars per barrel: the widest margin since 2022.
According to several analysts interviewed by Reuters, high gasoline prices in the United States are also linked to limited inventories. In this regard, in early May the American oil industry had exported over 8.2 million barrels of fuels per day, 20 percent more than the same period in 2025.
