Leonardo plunged on Piazza Affari after rumors about the non-renewal of Roberto Cingolani as head of the Italian state-controlled defense and aerospace giant.
Speculation about the Italian government’s intention not to confirm the engineer (and former minister) at the helm of Leonardo caused a sharp drop in the stock price (on April 7 it lost 8.05%), with the market reacting negatively to the uncertainty about the future management of the Piazza Monte Grappa group.
Roberto Cingolani took over Leonardo in May 2023; during his tenure, the company’s stock recorded growth of over 500%, with the share price rising from about 10.50 euros to reach 64 euros and a surge in orders, as highlighted by the Financial Times, also supported by the international geopolitical context and the expansion of the defense sector. Under his leadership, the former Finmeccanica group consolidated industrial partnerships with Airbus and Thales in the space sector, with Baykar in drones, and with Rheinmetall in land defense, strengthening the company’s international positioning.
Despite positive financial and industrial results, the market is questioning the reasons for the possible non-renewal. Two investors, who spoke anonymously to the FT, claim that the possible removal of Cingolani would be “political,” as there was “no economic justification” for such a decision.
In the absence of official reasons, hypotheses include on one hand the government’s desire to strengthen political control over strategic state-owned companies, favoring figures considered more aligned, and on the other hand some divergences on Cingolani’s industrial vision, particularly on the Michelangelo Dome project. The interconnected multi-domain system based on artificial intelligence, considered central to Leonardo’s new strategy, would have caused international frictions, specifically with the United States.
These remain only conjectures for now, as there is no official confirmation: the deadline for the submission of lists for the renewal of the board of directors by the MEF, the main shareholder (30.2%), is April 13. The Shareholders’ Meeting is convened in ordinary session on May 7, 2026, in a single call.
All the details.
SHARP DROP OF THE STOCK ON PIAZZA AFFARI
On April 7, Leonardo shares recorded a sharp decline, losing over 7%, down to 57.8 euros per share, making it the worst-performing stock in the FTSE MIB despite the general rise on Piazza Affari. In terms of market capitalization, the group lost nearly 3 billion euros on the stock market.
The sales were driven by growing rumors that the Meloni government was considering not confirming Roberto Cingolani as CEO.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY
According to Intermonte analysts, “the non-renewal of Cingolani would represent a choice unwelcome by the market considering the results achieved by Cingolani in recent years. The management change would also create a phase of strategic uncertainty (regarding the European joint ventures created by Cingolani in the space sector with Airbus and Thales, drones with Baykar, land defense with Rheinmetall) at a time of strong geopolitical tensions.”
Banca Akros also highlights the results achieved under the current CEO’s management: “Leonardo has consistently exceeded its financial targets under Roberto Cingolani’s leadership (appointed in May 2023). However, a change of CEO does not in itself alter the group’s strategic positioning nor the fundamentals of the sector.”
BARCLAYS’ SUPPORT FOR CINGOLANI
Meanwhile, yesterday Barclays intervened “in defense” of Cingolani, confirming the “overweight” rating for the Piazza Monte Grappa company and raising the target price from 71 to 74 euros (29% upside).
“We consider the current management an essential component of the investment thesis,” the British bank highlighted, recalling the transformation carried out by Cingolani since he took over in 2023: record order backlog at 24 billion in 2025, free cash flow conversion rate up to 58%, a balanced sheet restored with a net debt/EBITDA ratio of just 0.4 times, and earnings upgrades of 42% in the last 15 months, compared to the sector average of 26%.
Furthermore, according to Barclays, the timing of a possible leadership change would not be ideal, given the ongoing strategic dossiers. There is the verbal agreement with Rheinmetall on some Iveco assets, as well as the potential partnership with a Saudi sovereign fund for Aerostructures expected by June. “A management change now, with these operations underway, could cause further delays and clearly poses a risk to the equity story in the short term,” the analysts concluded.
THE MICHELANGELO DOME PROJECT AMONG THE REASONS FOR THE POSSIBLE CHANGE?
Some assessments concern the manager’s decision-making autonomy, considered excessive by some government circles, in a sector regarded as strategic like defense.
According to various accounts, the deterioration of relations between Cingolani and the government stems from divergences on industrial strategy and group management.
“Two hypotheses, or rather, mainly one: Cingolani’s hot-headed, non-political, and overly autonomous character,” according to La Stampa. “In three years, the former minister built agreements with the French Airbus and Thales in space, with the Turks of Baykar in drones, with the aforementioned Germans of Rheinmetall in land defense. Then came the ‘Michelangelo Dome,’ the air defense project on which he counted for reconfirmation. An investment of over twenty billion euros and — say the cynics — not much liked by the American Deep State,” wrote the Turin daily yesterday.
Last November 27, the company presented the Michelangelo Dome program, that is, its “vision developed over the last three years” of an integrated air defense system that “is making Leonardo a multi-domain company that must guarantee global security from every type of threat,” announced the group’s CEO, Roberto Cingolani.
DISAPPROVED BY THE USA?
Class CNBC also spotlighted Michelangelo Dome as a possible bone of contention. “In Ukraine, Michelangelo Dome testing begins in 2026, and this certainly did not please some U.S. military and defense circles who do not look favorably on the fact that a weapons system, an integrator, a platform like the one conceived by Leonardo and Cingolani could be deployed, not under American defense orders and perhaps even in competition with other solutions like Iron Dome or the integrated defense that the United States has designed and that we see in operation right now,” observed Andrea Cabrini, director of Class CNBC.
Cingolani had described the Dome project as “the largest integration program ever realized.” Moreover, the infrastructure is designed to be open, meaning compatible with the defensive assets and platforms of other countries and according to NATO standards.
MINISTER CROSETTO’S SUPPORT
Not to forget the Defense Ministry’s declared support for Leonardo’s project.
Defense Minister Guido Crosetto had defined Michelangelo Dome as an “important Italian project” and “we are discussing it with all countries,” the minister said during a press briefing held at the Italian embassy in Paris, following a meeting with his French counterpart Catherine Vautrin. In Michelangelo Dome “each country can integrate technologies and all cooperate together to provide a highly advanced defense system” against “every type of threat,” Crosetto explained, specifying that threats are now “of different types” and range “from those with very high technology costs” to those “with very low lethal technology.”
EXPERTS’ COMMENT
According to an industry insider who requested anonymity, attributing the possible non-renewal of Roberto Cingolani solely to the Michelangelo Dome project would be a “forced” and “simplistic” reading, since the program — although considered advanced and strategically consistent with the evolution of European defense — is still under development and has not even been operationally tested.
The analyst points out to Startmag that the project has enjoyed institutional support since its public presentation and that, industrially, it represents a complex initiative integrating platforms, drones, satellites, cyber capabilities, and existing or being implemented weapons systems, making it economically sustainable and consistent with the European interoperability strategy.
For this reason, any critical issues regarding Michelangelo Dome could at most have contributed to tensions in managing the dossier but are unlikely to be the determining cause.
The prevailing interpretation, according to this reconstruction, would rather be political and relational: the government’s evaluations are based on broader factors, including possible personal and institutional divergences that have developed over time between management and the executive. On the industrial and financial front, the expert recalls that the strategy set under Cingolani’s management continues to be considered valid by the market, as demonstrated by the raised target prices from several investment banks, the maintenance of positive sentiment on the stock, and the solidity of the group’s industrial backlog.
However, even in the event of a leadership change, a radical discontinuity in the industrial strategy seems unlikely, given that Leonardo’s refocusing path on digital, multi-domain, integrated defense, and interoperability is now considered structural by the market and stakeholders.
All that remains is to wait for the government’s final decision. The choice could come in the next few hours as part of the majority’s discussions on public company appointments.
