Leonardo is raising the bar. And it is doing so at a time when the European defense industry is rapidly transforming amid continental rearmament, geopolitical tensions, and technological revolution. With the update to the 2026-2030 industrial plan, the group led by Roberto Cingolani aims to strengthen its role in global security by combining financial growth, new technological platforms, and strategic industrial operations.
The management’s message to the markets is clear: traditional defense is no longer enough. As Cingolani himself explained, the sector is undergoing a structural transformation because “security no longer concerns only the traditional perimeter of defense, but directly the economic and social continuity of countries.”
The new plan comes at a time of major transformation for the military and aerospace industry. The war in Ukraine, rising tensions in the Middle East, cyberattacks, and the proliferation of drones and missiles are radically changing the global market. “The context is dramatic, there are now more than 60 conflicts worldwide,” Cingolani noted, emphasizing that today “there is an enormous demand for defense systems,” especially in the field of air defense against missiles and drone swarms.
In this scenario, Leonardo aims to become one of the key players in so-called global security, integrating traditional defense, cyber, space, supercomputing, and artificial intelligence.
2025 FIGURES: REVENUES, PROFITS, AND CASH FLOW GROWTH
The updated industrial plan follows a 2025 that confirmed the group’s growth trajectory. Leonardo closed the year with revenues of €19.5 billion, up 11% compared to 2024, while orders reached €23.8 billion, an increase of 15%. EBITA stood at €1.75 billion, growing by 18%.
The net result reached €1.3 billion, while free operating cash flow exceeded one billion, standing at about €1.01 billion. At the same time, net debt fell to about €1 billion, down 44% from €1.8 billion in 2024.
On this basis, the board of directors will propose a dividend of €0.63 per share to the shareholders’ meeting, up 21%.
THE PLAN TO 2030: REVENUES AT 30 BILLION AND DOUBLED PROFITABILITY
Looking ahead, Leonardo aims to further strengthen its industrial position. The industrial plan foresees that by 2030 orders will reach €32 billion and revenues will rise to €30 billion, compared to €19.5 billion in 2025. EBITA is expected to reach €3.59 billion, more than double current levels.
In the 2026-2030 period, the group estimates cumulative orders of €142 billion and revenues of €126 billion. Free operating cash flow should reach €2.06 billion by the end of the plan.
For 2026, Leonardo expects orders around €25 billion, revenues of about €21 billion, and EBITA of €2.03 billion.
Growth will also be supported by the increase in global security spending, which according to estimates cited by the group could exceed $1,000 annually by 2030.
GROWING DIVIDENDS AND FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE
One of the key messages of the plan concerns shareholder remuneration policy. The dividend will grow by 21% in 2026 and the group expects further increases throughout the plan period.
At the same time, Leonardo aims to further reduce debt and maintain investment grade rating, targeting a financial leverage below 0.8 by 2028.
The capital allocation strategy moves along three lines: investments in the core business, targeted industrial growth operations, and progressive increase in shareholder returns.
CINGOLANI’S VISION: SECURITY BEYOND DEFENSE
The industrial plan reflects a structural change in the sector.
“We have achieved everything we planned in the first industrial plan, beyond all expectations,” Cingolani explained. “We have all the platforms, from the land domain to space, naval, and air. We have invested heavily in digital, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.”
According to the manager, the real issue is not only traditional war but the growing spread of hybrid wars.
“Expanding the portfolio also raises a production growth issue,” Cingolani explained. “But the central question is that we will increasingly face hybrid, non-traditional threats, and we must be ready.”
MICHELANGELO DOME, THE TECHNOLOGICAL DOME AGAINST FUTURE THREATS
The flagship project of the new strategy is the Michelangelo Dome, an integrated multi-domain defense platform.
It is not a single system but an architecture that combines radars, sensors, operational platforms, command and control systems, and artificial intelligence algorithms. The goal is to create a kind of technological “dome” capable of monitoring and neutralizing threats coming from all operational domains: air, land, sea, space, and cyber.
According to the group’s estimates, the Michelangelo Dome could generate business opportunities worth about €21 billion over the next decade.
“Air defense shields have a precision level of 94-96%,” Cingolani explained. “But if someone launches hundreds or thousands of missiles and drones, some always get through. The real problem is massive attacks.”
KEY SECTORS: ELECTRONICS, DRONES, CYBER, AND SPACE
The group’s growth will be supported by several business areas.
In the defense electronics sector, Leonardo aims to strengthen its role as a European leader in sensor and radar development.
In the helicopter segment, the group intends to maintain global leadership in the civil market and strengthen its presence in the military segment. Just a few days ago, the closing of a €1 billion agreement with the UK government for helicopter supply was announced.
In the aerospace sector, the group aims to consolidate its position in international programs and in the development of advanced drones, with investments between Ronchi dei Legionari, Genoa, and Grottaglie.
SPACE AND EUROPEAN JOINT VENTURE
One of the most significant industrial projects concerns space. Leonardo is working on creating a joint venture with Airbus and Thales (the so-called Bromo) to combine some space activities of the three groups, thus creating the largest European player in the sector. Over the plan period, the Space division expects order, revenue, and EBITA growth of 20.7%, 20.2%, and 26.4% respectively.
THE IVECO DEFENCE DOSSIER AND THE RHEINMETALL GAME
On the industrial acquisition front, the Iveco Defence Vehicles operation remains central. Leonardo confirmed that the closing of the operation, valued at about €1.7 billion, should take place by the first quarter of 2026.
The dossier fits into a context of consolidation of the European land systems sector, in which the German group Rheinmetall is also strengthening its industrial presence. And just yesterday, a veiled complaint came from the CEO of the German defense giant, Armin Papperger. “The first agreement between Iveco and Leonardo was delayed, and our agreement was also delayed,” Papperger said. Perhaps also for this reason, Cingolani reiterated that the Iveco operation will be completed by the end of March.
CROSETTO, REQUESTS FROM GULF COUNTRIES AND PRODUCTION INCREASE
The growth in international demand is also pushing European governments to ask the defense industry to accelerate production.
In recent days, Defense Minister Guido Crosetto gathered the main Italian companies in the sector to discuss increasing industrial capacity and the speed with which to respond to international partners’ requests.
According to Cingolani, demand is already very high and mainly concerns air defense systems.
“There is an emergency because Europe wants to support Gulf countries as well,” the manager explained, emphasizing that Leonardo is working to quickly provide new platforms and systems.
The Defense Ministry has asked the industry to be ready to provide solutions very rapidly: “The request is to have solutions ready within a week,” Cingolani said referring to radars and tools to verify incoming threats.
EUROPEAN DEFENSE, DEFICIT, AND EXPORT SUPPORT
The debate on the growth of the defense industry also intertwines with European fiscal rules and the possibility of introducing greater flexibility to finance new military programs. The conditio sine qua non is that Italy stabilizes at a 3% deficit (currently at 3.1%) to access EU funding such as Safe. This is no small matter for a national champion like Leonardo, whose investment forecasts – for example on ambitious projects like the Michelangelo Dome – also depend on defense spending that the State intends to undertake.
Asked about the topic, Cingolani urged caution: “We will see the numbers.”
According to the manager, the issue is not so much immediate financial capacity as the role national spending plays in supporting the technological credibility of companies in international markets.
Leonardo exports over 80% of its production, but “the first thing other countries ask you is: has your country adopted this technology?”.
Hence what Cingolani calls a “chain of trust” between industry and State.
UNDERWATER, AI, AND NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DOMAINS
Besides space and cyber, Leonardo is also looking at new technological domains.
One of these is the underwater domain. “Underwater signals do not propagate as they do on land,” Cingolani explained. “It is a field where there is still much to do and where we want to invest, also engaging with Fincantieri.”
THE STOCK MARKET REACTION
The markets welcomed the results and the new industrial plan positively. On the Milan Stock Exchange, Leonardo’s stock surged strongly in the early hours of trading, gaining over 8%. A few hours before the close of Piazza Affari, the stock was trading at +4.5%.
The stock was mainly supported by the numbers of the updated industrial plan and the growth prospects indicated by the group. Investors looked favorably at the financial targets for 2030 – expected revenues of €30 billion and more than doubled EBITA – as well as the prospect of greater shareholder remuneration through increased dividends.
The performance also reflects the broader sector context, which in recent years has benefited from increased global military spending and prospects of strengthening the European defense industry.
MORE ENGINEERS AND NEW SKILLS
Industrial growth will also translate into a significant strengthening of the workforce. Leonardo expects 28,000 new hires between 2026 and 2030, bringing the total number of employees to over 75,000 people.
More than half of the new hires will be young people under thirty, and about 70% will be STEM profiles.
