Will Germany request access to the Gcap (Global Combat Air Programme), a program for a sixth-generation air combat system that is expected to be operational by 2035, developed by Italy, the United Kingdom, and Japan?
This is the question that had been rumored for some time, but which has become more pressing now that Paris and Berlin have agreed not to proceed with the Fcas (Future Combat Air System) project, the program to develop the sixth-generation fighter jet born from the collaboration between Germany, France, and Spain with Belgium as an observer country.
The Fcas program – estimated to be worth over 100 billion euros – was designed to replace the French Rafale and the German and Spanish Eurofighters starting from 2040. However, the long unresolved dispute between the companies involved: the French Dassault and the German division of the European group Airbus, ultimately caused the program to collapse.
What will the countries involved in the failed Fcas project do now?
According to the publication Politico, there are at least three options on the table: independently develop new aircraft, increase purchases of American F-35 fighters, or join already existing alternative programs such as Gcap.
All the details.
THE FRENCH CHALLENGE OF AUTONOMY
“France will probably take the path of a national procurement program to develop a sixth-generation fighter entrusted to Dassault, in continuity with the practice that led to the Mirage and Rafale” Alessandro Marrone, head of the “Defense, Security and Space” program at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (Iai), highlighted yesterday on Startmag.
“Thus, the hard line of Dassault and its CEO, Eric Trappier, would have prevailed, who can now do what they have always done: conceive and produce a combat fighter jet in complete autonomy. Specifically, based also on lessons learned from operational theaters, we are talking about a sort of RAFALE 2.0, where hyper-technological sophistication is kept under control in the name of operational usability and export market,” comments Pietro Batacchi, director of Rid.
According to Politico, Paris is indeed in a different position compared to Berlin. Dassault has always maintained that France possesses the industrial capabilities necessary to independently develop a new combat aircraft.
Besides the need to maintain its own strategic autonomy, France also considers the future fighter essential for maintaining the air component of nuclear deterrence.
However, the issue of financial resources remains. The difficulties of French public finances could make it particularly costly to finance such a program alone, the publication specifies.
F-35 OPTION FOR BERLIN?
A second possibility is represented by the purchase of additional American F-35 fighters, Politico reports.
According to German budget documents reviewed by the publication, Berlin has allocated about 2.5 billion euros to expand its fleet from 35 to 50 aircraft. Already last February, the German newspaper Handelsblatt reported a possible acquisition of additional F-35 fighters by the Merz government, an operation that would allow Germany to cover potential operational gaps and, at the same time, redefine its role in European industrial defense programs.
Germany had already ordered 35 F-35s in 2022 from the American company Lockheed Martin, with deliveries expected to start this year. In the autumn, rumors circulated about a possible additional order of 15 units, a hypothesis that has so far not received official confirmation.
However, greater reliance on the F-35 would also increase European dependence on the United States at a time when many governments on the continent support the need to strengthen European strategic autonomy.
Further complicating the picture is the future F-47 developed by Boeing as part of the American sixth-generation program. Although the aircraft could enter service by the end of the decade, Donald Trump has stated that the United States would export less capable versions to its allies compared to those intended for the American armed forces.
OTHER ALTERNATIVES FOR GERMANY
According to Batacchi, instead, “Two scenarios now open up for Berlin: try to join Gcap, but this would mean wiping the slate clean and starting over, with at least a year of program halt, or launch a partnership with Sweden; the latter challenge, however, is very complicated both in terms of operational requirements and industrial aspects.”
According to Politico, one of the options under study is the national development of a new air combat system. A path already proposed by German companies.
According to a letter addressed to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, Airbus and seven other German aerospace and defense companies have proposed the creation of a new industrial alliance called Team Gen 6, with the goal of developing a European sixth-generation fighter. However, the proposal requires political support from Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the Ministry of Defense, as well as significant financial resources.
“Regarding the new aircraft, we will see which paths we will take,” Pistorius said. “We have been discussing it with various actors for months.”
Time will certainly be a decisive factor.
“For Airbus, a quick decision is considered crucial: the first phase of the Fcas program ends by the end of the year and the risk, in the absence of a replacement project, would be the dispersion of skills and know-how of highly specialized engineers and technicians,” notes today Analisi Difesa.
ENTRY INTO GCAP
Finally, therefore, Gcap has emerged as the main candidate to absorb any European partners left without a national program.
The project developed by Italy, the United Kingdom, and Japan for a sixth-generation air combat system seems to be progressing rapidly. At the beginning of April, the first joint international contract for the program was awarded: the Gcap Agency, which manages the program on behalf of the three nations, awarded the contract to Edgewing, the trinational industrial joint venture established to lead the design and development of the program among the lead companies (Leonardo for Italy, Bae Systems for the United Kingdom, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for Japan).
In an interview with Bloomberg, Leonardo’s new CEO Lorenzo Mariani emphasized that “having Germany as a full member of the team would be a positive thing” but “if you really want to have an aircraft capable of flying and performing demonstrations by 2035, the entry of another partner at this moment could be disruptive.” “It would be better to find a formula that does not lead us to compete among ourselves but with markets outside Europe,” added Leonardo’s top executive.
