There is news that initially circulated almost quietly, overshadowed by the debate on the downsizing of American troops in Germany, for which the United States now plans a cut exceeding the initially announced 5,000 soldiers. Yet it is worth revisiting. The Trump administration decided not to honor the commitment made by its predecessor: the long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles that Washington was supposed to deploy on German soil will not arrive. For many analysts, this is the real news, far more significant in its effects than any military personnel reduction: if implemented, it will profoundly impact existing arrangements.
AN AGREEMENT SIGNED BY BIDEN AND SCHOLZ
It all started just two years ago, in what now seems like another geological era. In 2024, Joe Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz had reached a precise understanding: the United States would temporarily position missile systems in Germany capable of covering up to 2,500 kilometers, enough to reach Russian territory. A deployment conceived as a transitional solution, awaiting Europe to build its own capabilities.
Despite the pacifist inclination of the Germans already diluted due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Scholz had to sweat bullets to convince the electorate, particularly his party’s base, of the merits of the arrival of the stars-and-stripes missiles. The start was scheduled for 2026. Now, the Pentagon has announced that the battalion designated for that mission will not depart.
AN ASYMMETRIC THREAT
In Kaliningrad, meanwhile, Russia already has its missiles. Security expert Nico Lange reminded the public on the public broadcaster Ard’s newscast, using no euphemisms: Germany has nothing comparable to respond with, and the agreement with the Americans was precisely to fill that gap: “We wanted to get them from America, but now we won’t have them.” The point, he adds, is that Europe will have to develop these capabilities on its own, and it will have to do so quickly, because the current imbalance is unacceptable, especially at a time when geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing.
A GAP THAT NO ONE KNOWS HOW TO FILL
Military analyst Christian Mölling, speaking on the other public network Zdf, goes straight to the heart of the problem. The abandonment of the missiles, he says, is “by far the most dramatic news, not the troop withdrawal.” “These systems are not meant to defend a border when it is violated – he explains – they serve to deter those who might do so, by striking enemy offensive capabilities already in the early stages of a possible advance, long before Russian forces approach NATO’s edges.” Without them, deterrence thins out.
And here the paradox emerges: a less capable alliance to deter could, in the end, increase rather than reduce the chances of direct American involvement in a European conflict. Carlo Masala, professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, summarizes the situation bluntly in Die Welt: a significant gap is opening, and no one yet knows for sure when and how it will be filled.
GERMAN POLITICIANS SEEKING ANSWERS
German politics is moving, albeit with the feeling of having to catch up. Thomas Erndl, defense spokesperson for the Union (the CDU and CSU grouping) and member of the Bavarian party, calls on Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to act without delay: concrete solutions are needed, a short-term operational horizon, new ideas on how to quickly acquire precision missile capabilities. So far, Pistorius has only offered a mild comment on the troop withdrawal announcement: it is not news that the US intended to withdraw 5,000 soldiers from Germany, the minister tried to downplay. Shortly after, however, news bounced back from Washington that Trump is considering a troop withdrawal number far higher. And in any case, the Berlin ministry has so far made no comment on the missile issue.
Siemtje Möller, a Social Democrat and vice president of the parliamentary group, calls it a “bad signal” and urges speeding up the European Elsa program, whose completion horizon is set between 2030 and 2032, meanwhile exploring cooperation with third countries. Among these is also Ukraine, which in recent years has developed a remarkable autonomous missile capability, producing systems capable of striking targets inside Russia. An unexpected partner, perhaps, but increasingly attractive.
