From Space Domain Awareness to Leo constellations: the new frontier of security.
With the recent record IPO of SpaceX along with the use of satellite capabilities in the Ukrainian conflict (including the low Earth orbit Starlink constellation owned by Elon Musk’s aerospace company), space has become one of the main theaters of technological, economic, and geopolitical competition among powers.
Precisely the growing dependence on satellite infrastructures, the acceleration of the New Space Economy, the militarization of the orbital environment, and the competition among great powers are redefining the priorities of governments, armed forces, and industries.
In this scenario, Bromo – the project by Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales aiming to unify their respective space activities into a new company – is decisive: to make a technological shift from operating in Geo to operating in Leo, to be able to close this gap.
These topics were discussed during the conference “Supra Astra: the strategic challenge of space dominance between national security, industrial competitiveness, and the new space economy,” organized by CeSI in collaboration with the Italian Air Force and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, to present the homonymous report.
All the details.
SPACE FROM OPPORTUNITY TO NECESSITY
The strategic context is evolving at an unprecedented speed, as indicated at the opening of the event by Andrea Margelletti, advisor to the Minister of Defense and president of CeSI, who highlighted how “We no longer have time, not even decision-makers have time to make a careful decision. We lived in an era when space was a peaceful area, so connected with the seabed, so distant but where all human battles are based on communications and data.”
Margelletti emphasized that the most significant transformation has been the progressive privatization of space activities and the proliferation of satellite constellations. “The real big revolution has been the privatization of space, hundreds and hundreds of satellites mean that there is no longer space in space.” In this context, he added, “We must realize that space is not an opportunity but a necessity.” According to the CeSI president, besides institutions and armed forces, the industrial sector is also called to take an increasingly active role in investments and innovation.
THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND THE NEW STRATEGIC VALUE OF SPACE
For Emmanuele Panero, head of the Defense and Security desk at CeSI and author of the report “Supra astra: the strategic challenge of space dominance between national security, industrial competitiveness, and the new space economy,” the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has contributed to increasing awareness of the importance of space as an operational domain. The expert recalled that NATO has long identified space as a full-fledged war domain.
Panero stressed the need to foster the growth of companies in the sector to transform technological innovation into industrial and operational capability. He also indicated as a strategic priority the ability to rapidly reconstitute satellite constellations in case of loss of space assets, through strengthening launch capabilities and autonomous access to space.
According to the CeSI expert, resilience also passes through the proliferation of Leo satellites: “it is necessary to equip ourselves with satellites in low Earth orbit, numerous because redundancy is synonymous with resilience.”
COMPETITION IN ORBIT
Colonel Salvatore Florio, deputy head of the General Space Office of the Air Staff, described the evolution of threats in the space domain, emphasizing how the increasing sophistication of Chinese capabilities and others is profoundly changing the operational framework.
“Until today space was something where we launched a satellite into orbit, but then the Chinese made us understand that there are satellites operating at speeds never seen before and in a coordinated manner.”
Florio drew attention to the risks related to space control operations, cyber and electromagnetic threats, and the growing competition over large satellite constellations. He recalled how China aims to massively expand its presence in low orbit: “facing 10,000 operational Starlink satellites, China wants to launch 100,000, there is absolute competition in this regard.” While “Russia has reduced launches,” Colonel Florio highlighted, on the other hand Moscow boasts “exclusive capabilities,” while commercial capabilities are increasingly integrated into defense needs.
“We have started to engage with government and commercial entities that provide readily available capabilities for defense,” he explained, highlighting interest in dual-use technologies and systems quickly adaptable to strategic uses.
SPACE IS NOT A NEUTRAL DOMAIN
Also, the special envoy for space of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Marco Lisi, emphasized the need to consider space as a domain fully integrated into security policies.
“Space is not a neutral domain. The message of the study is this, which seems obvious but does not always translate into concrete facts.”
According to Lisi, all national capabilities present in space should be systematized to promote greater integration between civil and military programs. He cited the case of national constellations and European programs, advocating the need to enhance and integrate existing infrastructures through common management of data and ground segments.
“We cannot afford mistakes like those made by the European Space Agency with the Copernicus program, which is not useful for European defense and today forces us to develop another constellation,” Lisi stressed, a veiled reference to the Iris2 project: the EU’s multi-orbit constellation with which Europe aims to position itself in the management of satellite systems currently dominated by Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service by Elon Musk. While SpaceX has already deployed over 10,000 Starlink satellites in space (half of those in orbit), Iris2 aims to reach full operational capability in the early 2030s.
QUESTIONS RAISED BY THE IRIDE PROJECT
Then engineer Lisi focused attention on Iride
“Over a billion spent on Iride, 3 billion in the next ten years and on defense? We cannot afford it,” Lisi reiterated, highlighting that “We must aim for integration and we can do it at the ground segment level, therefore in planning and data processing, taking the Cosmo-SkyMed model as a reference but in a more ambitious way, including satellites that are not born as critical assets.”
“Iride will never become Cosmo-SkyMed, but we can pool and reprocess data from satellites not specifically military,” hoped the special envoy for space of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
IN THE OLD CONTINENT IT IS NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE WELFARE MODEL
Furthermore, Lisi continued, “A myth must be dispelled about the New Space Economy: it is not a cornucopia. When we read that the market will be worth 1.5 trillion dollars, it does not mean that a share is automatically destined for us. It is the realm of pure liberalism and the toughest competition. If we continue with the old welfare mentality, nothing awaits us.”
Looking at the recent listing of Musk’s aerospace company, Lisi pointed out that “SpaceX took risks for years and today reaps the results of that path. If we do not change this type of mentality, we will not go far. It is not enough to create a system among large industries, we must change approach: thinking exclusively in a welfare perspective does not work.”
Regarding international cooperation, according to Lisi, “the New Space Economy forces us to also change the way we collaborate with other countries. The world is more multilateral than we think. We must build international cooperation at all levels, also in the defense sector, through win-win partnerships that generate mutual benefits and can also translate into increased exports.”
LEONARDO’S RESPONSES: FROM THE LEO CONSTELLATION TO THE BROMO PROJECT
Many questions then to which the Italian industry is responding: Massimo Comparini, managing director of Leonardo’s Space Division, illustrated the former Finmeccanica group’s strategy to strengthen Italy’s presence in the space sector.
“Space has taken on a much more public dimension than a few years ago,” he observed, recalling the company’s decision to create a dedicated division and invest about half a billion euros in a proprietary low Earth orbit constellation.
On this subject, the Leonardo manager hopes that “the Leonardo constellation with half a billion in investments may arrive earlier, four years ahead of the ESA Ers program, with the launch window in 2027, open for about six months, during which the first orbital plan of the new constellation will be released.”
Then Comparini highlighted the value of national skills, particularly in the radar sector, and the role of programs like Cosmo-SkyMed, defined as “a best practice” and a dual-use system still used by the armed forces today.
Among the priorities indicated by the head of Leonardo’s Space Division are in-orbit servicing, the enhancement of small and medium enterprises in the supply chain, and participation in European programs. Comparini also recalled Italy’s role in international lunar programs, from the Lunar Gateway to the Moonlight communication and navigation system led by Telespazio.
THE PATH TRACED BY THE BROMO PROJECT
“We are part of a consolidation process with the Bromo project that last October saw the signing of the MoU” between Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo, Comparini then recalled: “we aim at the scaleup aspect, while we discuss how to defragment spending at the European level.”
In this regard, he recalled that the United States Space Force is discussing “a budget of 170 billion dollars,” compared to these figures it is easy to understand how “fundamental scaleup in Europe is.” According to Comparini, “the project must generate value both for the company and for the country. The economic dimension of the space sector in Italy has grown, today we are stronger to count more through our technologies in an absolutely equal governance.”
RESILIENCE, AUTONOMY, AND SPACE DOMAIN AWARENESS ON THE ITALIAN AIR FORCE’S COURSE
Finally, in the conference’s conclusions, General Giovanni Balestri, deputy chief of staff of the Italian Air Force, outlined the main strategic directions for the future of the Italian space domain.
Balestri recalled how Italy has a leading industrial and scientific ecosystem at the European level and how the Air Force has been identified as the national lead service for space.
The general explained that the current context is characterized by a “contested, congested, and competitive” space, where the first need is to develop an advanced Space Domain Awareness capability, able to integrate orbital, cyber, and electromagnetic information to identify threats and assign responsibility.
A second priority concerns the resilience of distributed space architectures. “The answer lies in proliferated architectures, where mission continuity prevails over the survival of the single apparatus,” he stated, directly linking operational resilience to the national industry’s ability to produce satellites in series.
The third direction concerns the capacity for autonomous and sovereign access to space.” When we talk about sovereignty and access to space, we refer to the political and operational guarantee of launch. The freedom to act in the times and ways dictated by one’s security needs, without suffering vetoes or facing strategic bottlenecks,” the deputy chief of staff of the Air Force specified.
The fourth direction concerns the projection and defense of space assets. Projection requires an integrated approach that systematizes the resilience of space infrastructures, understood not only physically but also regarding cyber threats, electromagnetic spectrum vulnerabilities, maneuverability, and the ability to operate in degraded conditions. All this pursuing the strengthening of cooperation with allies. “In the coming years, the security of space structures will increasingly determine security on Earth,” concluded General Balestri.
