Up to 1,200 satellites in orbit, estimated investments of around 35 billion euros by 2030, and the goal of equipping itself with one of the largest existing military space infrastructures. This is the project, so far kept away from the spotlight, that according to Handelsblatt based on industry sources is taking shape within the Bundeswehr.
If the plans are confirmed, Germany will enter the exclusive group of global players in military space, with effects likely to impact the national aerospace industry as well.
A NETWORK OF THOUSANDS OF SATELLITES
The project is still being defined and the Ministry of Defense maintains strict confidentiality. However, two sources close to the dossier leaked to Handelsblatt journalists that the Bundeswehr aims to “put up to 1,200 satellites dedicated to communications and reconnaissance into orbit.” The final number has not yet been set and will depend on technical solutions emerging from discussions with the involved companies, but according to a senior military officer “the constellation will hardly fall below one thousand.”
In size, it would be second only to Starlink, at least at the current state. Meanwhile, large constellations under development in China and those promoted by private operators like Amazon could also come into play. In any case, Germany would carve out a place among the main players in the sector.
The economic daily’s article includes contributions from some analysts. Ulrich Walter, former astronaut and former professor of aerospace engineering at the Technical University of Munich, considers a network of this scale credible: to continuously monitor troop movements, armored vehicles, and other military targets, he notes, numerous satellites distributed over multiple orbits are needed.
A PROGRAM INTENDED TO LAST DECADES
The planned expenditure will not end with the creation of the constellation. The satellites will operate in low Earth orbit, explains Handelsblatt, where the slight drag from residual atmospheric layers slowly accelerates orbital decay, making continuous replacement of units inevitable. In the long term, the Bundeswehr might have to replace two or three satellites every week.
Manfred Hader, head of aerospace and defense at the consulting firm Roland Berger, recalls that the space sector already absorbs about seven billion euros annually from the military budget and that a significant portion of these resources will continue to be necessary to keep the future network operational.
A first step has already been initiated with SatcomBW4, the new satellite communications system developed by Airbus, OHB, and Rheinmetall. According to rumors, this program will also include several hundred satellites.
THE SPOCK 2 SYSTEM AT THE CENTER OF THE PLAN
The main component of the project should be Spock 2, acronym for Spacesystem for Persistent Operational Tracking. According to Walter, “about a thousand satellites will be allocated to this system, equipped with radar and optical sensors to provide the armed forces with almost continuous monitoring of the operational theater.”
The industrial competition has already started. Three groups are competing for the contract: Airbus Defence and Space together with Rohde & Schwarz, Rheinmetall alongside the Finnish company Iceye, specialized in radar satellites, and OHB, which collaborates with Helsing and the Norwegian state group Kongsberg. All have also involved young German space companies, such as Constellr and LiveEO, specialized in developing sensors and observation technologies. Final decisions are expected within a couple of years, while the first launches are unlikely to begin before the following three years. The horizon is therefore the early 2030s.
Meanwhile, discussions continue on the overall system setup. Andreas Knopp, professor at the University of the Federal Armed Forces, urges not to focus exclusively on the number of satellites. The decisive issue, he argues, concerns “the network architecture.” Two options are on the table: “a large multisensor constellation or multiple specialized constellations.” The latter solution would favor the entry of startups and small companies, expanding the European industrial base and strengthening the continent’s technological autonomy.
Orbital altitude will also affect costs. Walter considers “a choice around 600 kilometers altitude” likely: reaching that orbit requires higher initial investments, but “allows significantly extending the operational life of satellites compared to lower altitudes.”
THE INDUSTRY PREPARES FOR THE RACE
If each satellite remains operational for about ten years, the constellation will require replacing about 120 units per year. Walter estimates that only this activity will involve an expenditure close to one billion euros annually, confirming the exceptional scale of the entire program.
The impact will also be felt in the launcher sector. Bavarian companies like Isar Aerospace, based in Munich, and RFA, in Augsburg, could benefit from a stable demand for microlaunchers, with a frequency reaching one dedicated launch per week to keep the Bundeswehr constellation efficient.
Hader, however, urges caution: “The European market,” he notes, “will probably not be large enough to support all the companies currently present and only some will manage to consolidate.”
Preparations are also underway on the production front, concludes Handelsblatt. OHB is considering building a new plant, in Saxony or Bremen, capable of serially producing up to three satellites per week. Rheinmetall, together with Iceye, will open a facility near Düsseldorf intended to produce at least one satellite every seven days. Despite the enthusiasm, a certain caution still prevails within the Bundeswehr. A military representative, quoted anonymously by the German daily, recalls that no one in Germany has ever faced production on this scale: precisely for this reason, he warns, it would be “a mistake” to underestimate the technical and organizational difficulties awaiting the project.
