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BMW

Why BMW is pessimistic about 2026

The Munich-based company closed the 2025 fiscal year with a net profit of 7.45 billion euros, representing a 3% decline compared to the previous year. Despite revenues falling by 6.3% to 133.45 billion, BMW managed to maintain a stable pre-tax profit margin (EBT) at 7.7 percent.

Considering the situation of the other German “competitors,” starting with Volkswagen and its subsidiary Porsche, BMW can all in all say it has limited the damage during 2025, a horrendous year for Western automotive.

BMW’S 2025 IN NUMBERS

The Munich-based company closed the 2025 fiscal year with a net profit of 7.45 billion euros, recording a 3% decline compared to the previous year. Despite revenues falling by 6.3% to 133.45 billion euros, the German premium segment brand managed to keep the pre-tax profit margin (EBT) stable at 7.7%, thanks to strict cost discipline that allowed savings of 2.5 billion euros. The automotive segment suffered the most pressure: EBIT collapsed by 20.7%, with a margin steady at 5.3% compared to 6.3% in 2024.

TARIFF BURDEN SLOWS GERMAN CARS

BMW highlighted that the impact of customs tariffs imposed by Donald Trump eroded the margin by about 1.5 percentage points. Global deliveries still increased (+0.5%), with strong growth in Europe (+7.3%) and the Americas (+5.6%) compensating for the heavy 12.5% drop recorded in China. Positive data on electric vehicles: battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales grew by 3.6%, representing almost 18% of total sales.

VERY LITTLE OPTIMISM FOR 2026

The board proposed a dividend of 4.40 euros per ordinary share, maintaining a payout ratio of 36.6%. The conversion of preferred shares into ordinary shares at a 1:1 ratio was also proposed. While BMW closed 2025 limiting the damage compared to other German companies, the outlook for 2026 still indicates a further deterioration of conditions. The company expects tariffs to weigh on the automotive EBIT margin by another 1.25%, estimating a range for the current year between 4% and 6%. The German manufacturer led by Oliver Zipse aims for automotive free cash flow exceeding 4.5 billion euros for the current year.

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