War bulletin. The remnants of that coalition that won the early 2022 elections are abandoning the seats they had occupied with proud certainty in disorder and without hope. Armando Diaz will forgive us if we have allowed ourselves to paraphrase his Victory Bulletin of November 4, 1915, but the center-right majority – after the defeat in the referendum – gives the impression of a retreating army withdrawing without even attempting a line of resistance that could create considerable difficulties for the still uncertain and cautious advance of the opponents, who have not yet managed to coordinate their troops, still incredulous about the possibility of winning a war already considered lost. The government tries to process the mourning of its Ides of March by crediting the opponents’ criticisms as if they were well-founded, even taking them on self-critically.
Right or wrong, the executive and the majority have adjusted their policies in the direction indicated by the opposition, particularly those forces working in the broad front camp. In making this turn, the majority – like a routed army – abandons weapons and provisions to the advancing enemy. On the international politics front (one of Giorgia Meloni’s recognized merits), there is a change of strategy and alliances. Certainly, in this sector, contingencies have been more influential than will. Meloni was not able to mediate between the two sides of the Atlantic, because the American side was drifting further away without warning. And Trump contributed a lot to this.
But there has also been a change in the premier’s actions. The opposition kept her under pressure with the excuse of subordination to Donald Trump, playing not on the substance of political facts but on the fluff of statements. In fact, there was not a single political act in which the Italian government moved, in confrontation with the bizarre U.S. leader, on a line different from that of the EU. Meloni criticized the tariffs, which turned out to be a spectacular flop so much so that the government was praised for not sharing the opposition’s catastrophism; she defended Greenland from Trump’s designs without lending herself to the clownish act of sending a platoon of carabinieri among the ice and the fjords; she took a balanced position on the war in the Strip without getting involved in pro-Pal delusions despite the thousands of demonstrations held in Italy with the usual urban guerrilla aftermath and the crescendo of a renewed and widespread anti-Semitism; she continued to support Ukraine’s cause, backing the less adventurous loan proposal rather than the seizure of Russian assets, not heeding calls for defeatist realism that came not only from the U.S. but were also well present in Italy both inside and outside the majority.
It cannot be said that the government has taken concrete actions to support the Israeli-American attack on Iran (see the pro bono pacis refusal with the opposition of the failure to authorize landing at the Sigonella base). Certainly, compared to positions taken by other Chanceries and those of opposition leaders in Italy, Meloni has always used appropriate tones aware that there would be no West without the U.S. But above all, the government has maintained a public accounts line that in four years – even if the operation for early exit from the infringement procedure failed by a decimal – has reduced the deficit by 5 percentage points of GDP.
For some weeks now doubts and changes have emerged in this line. Let’s leave aside the more or less explicit words of criticism that have bounced between the shores of the Ocean and focus on the facts. First of all, the distancing from Israel in the conflict with Hezbollah which led not only to blocking the automatic renewal but to suspending the cooperation agreement. One can think all the worst about the Israeli government, but one must believe that donkeys fly if one does not recognize a sovereign state’s right to defend itself from a well-armed militia from Iran that has taken over Lebanon to bomb Israeli civilians. However, the gravest deviation lies in the obsessive request, at the EU level, to suspend the stability pact in its range of stupidity that goes from unilateral exit to the proposal to “do it yourself” if the Union remains opposed.
While the temptation of a step back on rearmament peeks through, it is all too clear that the energy crisis has nothing to do with it. If navigation through the Straits is not freed, there will not only be a cost problem but also needs that will require consumption containment measures and priority identification like those adopted in the 1970s after the Yom Kippur war. Indeed, it would make no sense to cap the price of a product that does not exist. The real goal of a larger deficit is that of an electoral-style budget law which, however, would not guarantee a victory in the 2027 elections. Especially if the government insisted on going to vote with a new electoral law characterized by an exorbitant majority prize. In the conditions in which the center-right finds itself, it is really not the case to play Russian roulette.
