It could become yet another slight destined to further distance the two sides of the Atlantic, the decision – reported as imminent by the Wall Street Journal – of the Spanish government to block the well-known platforms where you can bet on practically anything (even on the return of Jesus by 2027) Polymarket and Kalshi.
SPAIN BETS AGAINST POLYMARKET AND KALSHI BETTING SITES
According to the economic daily, although these platforms have been repeatedly in the news in recent months for some suspicious and striking wins by the Trumpian inner circle (emblematic is the case of Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a sergeant major serving at Fort Bragg, who wagered $33,000 on Polymarket betting “Maduro out by January 31” likely being aware of ongoing military operations in the area), allowing gambling, they have never obtained such licenses.
For this reason, the Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and Agenda 2030, which also deals with consumer rights, has requested a precautionary preventive block of the platforms while carrying out the necessary investigations to ascertain possible violations of Spanish law, a procedure that should take about 3-4 months.
THE TRUMPS (AND THOSE CLOSE TO THEM) LOVE POLYMARKET AND KALSHI
The problem, however, is that Polymarket, whose value today is $15 billion compared to $1 billion two years ago, has the president’s eldest son sitting on its Advisory Board. A far from casual entry since Trump Jr. has invested tens of millions through his fund 1789 Capital (curiously the amount has not been disclosed). Among the shareholders are also the Founders Fund of Trump ideologue Peter Thiel, founder of Paypal and Palantir, and Intercontinental Exchange, the main shareholder of the NYSE, the New York Stock Exchange.
As Reuters noted in an article last August, young Donald welcomed the purchase explaining on X that “Prediction markets have completely changed the way people follow the news,” showing a curious tendency to confuse the levels. And, furthermore: “Polymarket exposes media manipulation and the so-called opinions of ‘experts’ by allowing people to bet on what they really believe will happen in the world.”
Since January 13, 2025, Trump Jr. is also a “strategic Advisor” of Kalshi, whose valuation is $22 billion and in which, among many American tycoons, have invested Andreessen-Horowitz, a venture capital firm also backing OpenAI, financier Charles Schwab (star of a skit in the Oval Office where the president said he had earned $2.5 billion in just one day thanks to the right bets), Sequoia Capital, fund of Doug Leone, also a financial supporter of Trump and another staunch Trump supporter, Henry Kravis, founder of the private equity group KKR.
Truth Social, the social media owned by Trump through the Trump Media & Technology Group, has registered a subsidiary, Truth Predict, with the aim of entering the sector itself, this time directly with a company in its portfolio.
A NEW FRONT BETWEEN MADRID AND WASHINGTON?
The Spanish decision thus risks being seen as yet another affront by Sanchez to Trump at a time when relations between Washington and Madrid are already extremely tense both due to the Spanish government’s stances towards Israel, a very close ally of the Americans, and the decision to deny Americans use of military bases in Andalusia for operations against Iran.
The same decision could soon have to be made by Italy as well. Because despite it being clear that people bet and win or lose money on these platforms, there is still no legal equivalence to traditional gambling. Also due to their functioning which mimics traditional markets, with derivative contracts based on events. Not by chance, woe to calling them generic betting sites: the official definition is prediction markets. But it seems a distinction useful only to beautify their facade.
Currently, connecting from our country to the sites in question it is possible to consult them, browsing the ongoing bets and odds, without being able to place bets, in a sort of “read-only” mode that could however be interpreted as an incentive to bet. In case of a ban by Madrid, it will be interesting to see if there will be American countermeasures. Bets are accepted.
