STOCK MARKET EFFECT ON POSTE AND TIM
The market reacted sharply to Poste Italiane’s takeover bid on Tim. At mid-session today, Tim surged by +6.11%, reflecting the implicit premium in the offer and consolidation prospects. Poste, on the other hand, dropped heavily, losing over 9%, and settling at mid-session at -5.3%.
This divergence reflects two opposing views: on one side the immediate value for Tim shareholders, on the other the risks and costs of the operation for Poste. Not coincidentally, the total outlay in case of full acceptance is estimated at about 2.8 billion.
ANALYSTS: BETWEEN SKEPTICISM ON PRICE AND STRATEGIC RECOGNITION
Analysts’ reactions are mixed. Barclays considers the price “disappointing,” highlighting that it does not fully capture Tim’s growth options and that the valuation remains at a discount compared to competitors, despite a higher growth profile.
At the same time, the bank points out how the context is changing: greater rationality in the Italian retail market, possible developments related to consolidation and agreements on FiberCop and Open Fiber, as well as an improvement in competitive conditions.
Other observers, such as eToro, instead interpret the operation as a “natural evolution of a strategy,” not a “financial raid,” emphasizing the industrial coherence and the progressive building of synergies between telecommunications, payments, insurance, and energy. In this light, Tim’s return to profitability in 2025 is seen as a sign that the most critical phase is behind.
THE UNIONS: CONSENSUS WITH SPECIFIC DEMANDS
The union front welcomes the operation favorably but remains vigilant. Slc Cgil speaks of a “positive development” and the reconstruction of a national telecommunications champion, also highlighting past mistakes, starting with the network separation.
Uil, while defining the operation as “historic,” insists on the need for concrete guarantees on employment and investments and calls for the opening of a dialogue table. SLP-Cisl also stresses that workers must be “protagonists, not spectators” of this transformation.
FROM PRIVATIZATION TO PUBLIC RETURN: AN ITALIAN STORY
To grasp the deeper meaning of the operation, one must rewind the history of Telecom Italia. In 1997 the State decided to exit Telecom Italia, opening the era of privatizations. Control was entrusted to a small group of Italian investors – imagined as a “hard core” but effectively evolved into a “small core” – who were supposed to guarantee stability but soon proved insufficient.
Two years later came the Olivetti takeover bid by Colaninno and Gnutti, largely financed by debt. This was the turning point in the company’s history: the debt was loaded onto Telecom, conditioning its industrial choices for years. Other changes of control followed, from Tronchetti Provera to Telefonica, up to the entry of the French Vivendi.
Meanwhile, the competitive context changed radically: new operators, falling prices, growth of content and data traffic. Telecom progressively found itself weakened, with high debt and unstable governance.
La Repubblica speaks of a capitalism that, with the “brave captains,” often favored financial operations over industrial solidity. While for the Corsera what happens today is a “heterogenesis of ends,” with the return of the State after thirty years of privatizations.
According to the Messaggero, the takeover bid is the culmination of a long evolution, the finally accomplished birth of a “national champion” able to integrate telecommunications, logistics, and financial services. Meanwhile, the Foglio urges avoiding ideological readings: not sovereigntism, but an industrial choice in line with European dynamics.
“THIS IS HOW TO REMEDY A HISTORICAL MISTAKE”
In this context fits the judgment of Salvatore Rossi, who openly speaks of a “historical mistake” to be corrected. According to the former Tim chairman and former general director of Bankitalia, Italian privatizations have produced an anomaly: a large strategic infrastructure managed without a long-term vision.
The return to the public sphere, through Poste, represents for Rossi an opportunity to relaunch the group and enhance its technological potential. But the condition is clear: avoid rigid control and promote governance capable of innovating and competing.
In this light, Poste’s takeover bid appears as the most structured attempt in recent years to recompose an industrial chain that had progressively fragmented, bringing under a single direction assets ranging from connectivity to digital services, up to the direct relationship with millions of citizens and businesses.
