The blow came from Riyadh but was felt all the way to Piazza Affari. The Trojena ski resort, one of the most ambitious symbols of the futuristic Saudi megacity Neom, is losing pieces: among these is also the contract awarded to Webuild for the construction of three dams. A decision that tells much more than a simple industrial revision and fits into a broader rethinking of Saudi strategies.
THE 2.8 BILLION WITHDRAWAL THAT HITS WEBUILD
The central issue is the withdrawal exercised by the client Neom from the contract awarded to Webuild for the construction of a system of three dams intended to feed a freshwater artificial lake in the Trojena area, as well as the architectural structure called “The Bow.”
The project, awarded in 2024 for a total value of about 4.7 billion dollars, represented one of the most iconic interventions of the Italian group’s expansion in the Gulf. However, at the time of the withdrawal – which will become effective on March 29, 2026 – the work progress is around 30%, with a portion still to be completed that for Webuild is worth about 2.8 billion euros.
This is a significant figure because it represents the value of the work already acquired but not yet executed, that is, the share of activity that would have generated future revenues.
Webuild, however, is keen to point out that its construction backlog, meaning the overall portfolio of works to be built already contracted, remains above 50 billion euros even after exiting the Trojena project. Simply put, this figure indicates how many projects the group already has in hand and still has to complete: a sort of “guaranteed work” for the coming years, which forms the basis of visibility on future revenues.
It should also be said that the contract provided protections for the company: all costs incurred up to the withdrawal date and those related to early termination, including demobilization and site disengagement, will be reimbursed by the client. The impact is therefore not immediately economic, but mainly concerns industrial prospects.
MARKET REACTION AND ANALYSTS’ ASSESSMENT
The market reacted cautiously. Webuild’s stock closed the session at Piazza Affari down 1.73%, in a selling context that mainly reflects growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, beyond the group’s specific dynamics.
On a more strictly financial level, Equita also expressed its view, lowering the target price from 4.1 to 3.5 euros per share, while maintaining a “buy” recommendation. The target price is the price objective that analysts assign to a stock based on future prospects: a downward revision indicates expectations of slower growth or higher risks.
According to Equita, the central issue is whether Webuild will be able to replace the lost activity between 2026 and 2027, also because the overall exposure to Saudi Arabia remains significant, with about 5.7 billion euros of work in the country.
NOT ONLY WEBUILD: THE WAVE OF CANCELLED CONTRACTS
The case of the Italian group is not isolated but fits into a sequence of decisions that are reshaping Neom’s profile. The Saudi project has indeed cancelled or revised several contracts.
Among these is the one of the Malaysian Eversendai, tasked with the steel structures for the Trojena ski village. The company explicitly cited the “geopolitical situation in the Middle East” as the cause, highlighting the risks related to conflicts and instability in the region.
An important contract worth one billion dollars for the construction of a tunnel connected to the linear city “The Line,” awarded to Hyundai Engineering and Construction, was also cancelled. These are different interventions but share the same fate, indicating a comprehensive revision of the plans.
WHAT IS NEOM (AND WHY IT IS SO IMPORTANT)
To understand the meaning of these choices, one must enter the heart of the Neom project. It is not simply a new city, but a gigantic urban and economic experiment, with planned investments exceeding 500 billion dollars.
Neom was born as a pillar of the “Vision 2030” strategy, with which Saudi Arabia aims to reduce dependence on oil and build new sectors, from tourism to technology, from renewable energy to digital innovation. The idea is to create a city of the future, highly technological, sustainable, and capable of attracting global investments.
Within this project coexist several components, some of which are extremely ambitious. The best known is “The Line,” a linear city over 170 kilometers long designed to host millions of people in a car-free, low-emission environment. Alongside this, Neom includes ports, industrial areas, energy hubs, and luxury tourist destinations.
TROJENA, THE DREAM OF SNOW IN THE DESERT
In this context fits Trojena, one of the most symbolic and, at the same time, most controversial projects. It is a mountain tourist location, built in the northwest of Saudi Arabia, designed to host winter sports and high-end tourism in a desert area.
The heart of Trojena is precisely the artificial lake fed by the dams that Webuild was supposed to build. Around this lake, ski slopes, luxury resorts, and infrastructure for international events were to be developed. Not by chance, the site was chosen to host the 2029 Asian Winter Games.
The choice attracted great global attention because it represented an unprecedented technological and climatic challenge: bringing snow to the desert. However, precisely this ambition contributed to making the project complex and costly.
FADED OLYMPICS AND A CHANGE OF PACE
A first sign of slowdown had already come before the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. The 2029 Asian Winter Games, initially planned for Trojena, were first postponed and then awarded to the city of Almaty, Kazakhstan.
The decision was officially justified by construction delays and the need to develop a winter sports culture in the country. In reality, several observers read this choice as a sign of a deeper revision, linked to high costs and difficulty in meeting deadlines.
BETWEEN GEOPOLITICS AND ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
The reasons behind the cancellations seem to move on two levels. On one side, there is growing geopolitical tension in the region, with the risk of escalation between Iran, the United States, and Israel increasing uncertainty for large infrastructure projects.
On the other side, a more structural reflection emerges on the economic sustainability of the entire Neom plan. Rising costs, a less favorable financial context, and the need to generate quicker returns are pushing Saudi authorities to revise priorities.
More and more analysts talk about a “no ego” approach: fewer iconic projects and more investments with concrete and sustainable returns in the short term, such as industrial infrastructure and data centers linked to artificial intelligence.
WEBUILD’S POSITION
In this scenario, Webuild remains a solid group. The numbers prove it: revenues of 13.6 billion euros in 2025, EBITDA of 1.16 billion growing by 38%, a presence in about 50-60 countries, and a workforce that can reach up to 95,000 people including indirect employment. The order backlog, before the Saudis’ withdrawal, exceeded 63 billion euros, demonstrating a strong ability to acquire new contracts.
The issue, more than the loss of the single contract, concerns the ability to capture new opportunities in an international context that appears less linear compared to previous years.
A GAME STILL OPEN
The decisions on Neom do not mark the end of the project but reshape its timing, ambitions, and priorities, leaving many questions open about the future of major works in the Gulf and the role that companies like Webuild will continue to play in this scenario.
