Today Bulgaria returns to the polls for the eighth time in five years, in a climate of deep political instability, widespread distrust, and geopolitical divisions.
According to all polls, former president Rumen Radev and his new party Progressive Bulgaria are clearly in the lead with about 30-34% of the vote, but without an absolute majority.
The vote comes after months of mass protests against corruption and the collapse of the government in December 2025, and takes place as the country has just adopted the euro in January.
As Reuters writes, many rural and elderly voters see Radev as “a savior” capable of breaking the oligarchy; for Brussels and Kyiv, however, his victory could turn Sofia into the new “Russian problem” of the Union, just as Hungary has just defeated Viktor Orbán.
Chronic political instability
Bulgaria has been experiencing a permanent crisis since November 2021: seven early elections, seven prime ministers, none of whom completed their term.
As Euronews observes, the country has gone through “interim governments, fragile coalitions, and ephemeral alliances collapsed amid scandals.”
Trust in parties has evaporated: turnout is chronically declining – it was 39% in the last 2024 elections – and only 33% of citizens still believe in coalitions, while 49% demand a party with an absolute majority, according to an Alpha Research poll cited by Al Jazeera.
The causes are multiple. Endemic corruption – Bulgaria ranks 84th in the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International, last in the EU along with Hungary – sparked mass protests in December 2025 against a budget that increased taxes and contributions.
At the center of the protests, as Reuters writes, are the figures of Boyko Borissov (GERB) and Delyan Peevski (Movement for Rights and Freedoms), accused of “state capture.”
Deep divisions over the war in Ukraine have worsened everything: one third of society is pro-Russian, another third pro-European.
Paradoxically, precisely in these years of paralysis Sofia has made historic steps – joining Schengen and the euro – often without an approved budget, as noted by Euronews. But delays in reforms have blocked billions of EU recovery funds.
The parties and candidates in the race
The landscape is crowded and polarized. At the center of the scene is Rumen Radev with Progressive Bulgaria (PB), a left-wing but pro-Russian coalition.
Following are GERB-UDF of Boyko Borissov (credited with about 19.5%), composed of pro-EU conservatives but worn down by oligarchy accusations. Then there is We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), the reformist and pro-European bloc (12-14%), which rode the anti-corruption protests but lost credibility for having governed with Borissov. Then we have the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF/DPS) of Delyan Peevski (9-10%), sanctioned by the US and UK for corruption. Finally, there is Vazrazhdane (Revival), composed of anti-euro and anti-EU nationalists led by Kostadin Kostadinov, who is gaining ground.
Other minor parties (BSP socialists, Velichie, MECH, There Is Such a People) risk falling below the threshold.
As Al Jazeera reports, Radev has ruled out alliances with GERB and DPS; PP-DB has done the same with Borissov. The Parliament will therefore be fragmented again and negotiations for a government promise to be exhausting.
Rumen Radev: the favorite
A former air force general, president from 2017 to January 2026, Radev resigned to found Progressive Bulgaria and run for prime minister. Alpha Research polls give him 34.2%, about 10 points ahead of GERB.
As Reuters reports, his appeal is very strong among rural and elderly voters: the farmer Nikolay Vasiliev calls him “a dignified leader” capable of solving the country’s problems.
His campaign revolves around two pillars: “dismantling the oligarchy,” pointing the finger at Borissov and Peevski, and restoring “sovereignty” to Bulgaria.
Radev has collected over 650,000 euros in private donations, a sign of cross-cutting support. His popularity stems from having remained immune to the crises of recent years and from his role as a “strong man” who criticizes Brussels without ever proposing leaving the EU.
The parallel with Orbán and geopolitical risks
Radev’s victory raises alarm in Brussels and Kyiv. As the Atlantic Council writes, “if the polls are confirmed, Radev could replace Orbán as the most anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian voice in the EU.”
During his presidency, he obstructed military aid to Kyiv, called Crimea “legally Russian,” and criticized EU sanctions as “ideological.”
Recently he attacked the ten-year security agreement with Ukraine signed by the interim government and called to reopen dialogue with Moscow, emphasizing that Bulgaria is “the only Slavic and Orthodox member state.”
He also attempted – unsuccessfully – a referendum on the euro and now promises to “punish” those who introduced it “without asking the people.”
Bloomberg and Deutsche Welle note the parallel with Orbán: from criticism of Brussels’ “ideology,” to defending national economic interests, to openness to Russian gas and oil.
Yet Radev softened his tone after Orbán’s defeat, urging voters to vote en masse to “show that change is possible.”
The concern is that a Radev government could block aid to Kyiv, favor TurkStream over the Northern energy corridor, and become the new Russian “Trojan horse” in the EU and NATO.
The political and social state of the country
Bulgaria has grown economically since 2007, the year of EU accession: as Bloomberg notes, life expectancy has increased, unemployment is at historic lows, and per capita consumption is close to that of Hungary.
But rural areas are emptied of young emigrants, with damaged roads and dilapidated infrastructure. Corruption permeates public contracts and local elections.
There is a clear generational divide: young people see Radev as “part of the same model” and demand real reforms; the elderly and pensioners idolize him as “the last hope.”
Distrust is at its peak: Alpha Research polls show inflation as the top fear, followed by corruption.
Russian disinformation is intense: Sofia has asked the EU for help to counter it, as reported by the Guardian.
The consequences of joining the eurozone
On January 1, 2026, Bulgaria adopted the euro, completing the Schengen process.
As Bloomberg highlights, the economy now has greater “lifelines” and convergence with the EU has accelerated.
However, Radev has ridden the discontent: “Politicians promised you the ‘club of the rich,’ now you pay higher bills,” he said Tuesday, cited by Reuters. Energy inflation and rising prices have fueled resentment.
Delays in judicial and anti-corruption reforms have slowed the arrival of EU recovery funds, risking the loss of billions.
A Radev government could further slow integration, favoring policies such as criticism of Brussels’ “green ideology” and seeking cheaper Russian gas.
At the same time, the euro offers macroeconomic stability that no unstable government had managed to guarantee before.
What will happen after the vote?
Radev will almost certainly win first place but will have to find allies. The only plausible partner for anti-corruption reforms is PP-DB, but foreign policy differences are huge.
A minority or an alliance with nationalists or socialists is possible but fragile. As Politico warns, if a stable executive does not emerge, there will be new elections within a few months, along with the presidential ones.
For the EU the message is clear: Bulgarian instability is not only internal. A Radev government would test European cohesion just as Hungary exits Orbán’s orbit. For Bulgarians, however, it is yet another chance to break the vicious circle of oligarchy and paralysis.
