Mara Morini is a professor of Political Science at the University of Genoa, a great expert on Russia. For Mulino she published the book Putin’s Russia. What are Putin’s expectations for this phase of the war and its development?
The underlying expectation remains the same as in recent years: a war of attrition, the fatigue of the Ukrainian people, the weariness of public opinion in the Western world. Putin also benefits from the partial disengagement following the American presidency of Donald Trump, which led Europeans themselves to buy weapons from the Americans to assist the Ukrainians.
This disengagement is also visible from a political point of view, with what is happening in the Middle East. So much so that meetings between the American, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations to discuss a truce, ceasefire, or negotiation that could lead to peace have stopped.
Regarding the development of the war, I believe it is now evident that the issue is not so much on the ground, where there is a basically stalemated situation, although sometimes conflicting information arrives about the occupation by the Russians of additional square kilometers or, conversely, the recapture of territory by the Ukrainians.
I would say that the phase of the war has long since shifted to another level. First of all, there is the use of drones by the Ukrainians, who, as I have maintained for years, have demonstrated on their own the ability to produce the decisive weapons of the 21st century. And they are using them very effectively, as we have seen, with penetrations of several kilometers into the territory of the Russian Federation.
Some analysts claim that there are actually bases within the Russian Federation from which these drones are launched. However, this has certainly troubled the Kremlin’s image with respect to Russian public opinion, and it also puts President Putin in difficulty with his entourage.
So, in terms of development, I believe that in the coming weeks and months we will still witness reciprocal attacks. On one side, there will be responses according to the Kremlin’s narrative and Vladimir Putin’s defense policy concept, also through the use of missiles like the Oreshnik.
On the other side, Ukrainian attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation will continue.
At the moment, I do not believe either side intends to reach a ceasefire. On one hand, the Ukrainians have absolutely no intention of ending the conflict through surrender or concessions to Vladimir Putin. On the other, Russia remains convinced that in the end there will be a weariness of the Western world, a real fatigue.
At some point, talk began about a possible coup d’état. What do we know about internal tensions within the regime?
The issue of the coup was spread by an agency that years ago had already spoken of Vladimir Putin’s terminal illness. So, in my opinion, it is not very credible from the point of view of sources. Moreover, by spreading this news, it would have also alerted Vladimir Putin himself, allowing him to prevent any possible plot.
I do not think it is realistic to associate this intervention with the figure of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, his faithful and loyal friend. Certainly, sometimes one is betrayed precisely by the closest friends, but Shoigu is a figure rather disliked by the military apparatus. He himself has never been a soldier, and I do not believe he really had the intention or the capacity to create and organize something of this kind. Currently, on the contrary, he is implementing very important dossiers for Vladimir Putin.
This does not mean there cannot be discontent. We saw it not only years ago, when this conflict between so-called hawks and doves began, but especially in a phase in which it is not possible to see not so much the final outcome, but something significant in terms of attack on Ukrainian territory.
However, there remains a fundamental problem, which also characterizes anti-Putin factions or those around Vladimir Putin’s figure: finding his replacement. This is a topic that has been on the political agenda of the Moscow elite since Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012.
The problem is finding a figure who has the support not only of the military apparatus but also of the intelligence services, that is, the apparatus that brought Vladimir Putin to power. And it must be a person capable of managing the factions and the politics of this vertical power structure built by Putin with the same skills: distribution of benefits, incentives, management of balances.
It is difficult to find a person with this capacity and who is so deeply involved in the mechanisms created by Vladimir Putin. So discontent certainly exists. This certainly implies a political weakening of Vladimir Putin, who, however, still manages to keep the situation under control.
The Ukrainians expect the European Union to grant some form of early accession, or at least a secure prospect. How would Putin react?
I believe it is premature to talk about any kind of accession of Ukraine to the European Union, as we have already heard from some statements by European political leaders. However, it is clear that this expectation has always existed.
Let us not forget that it was also at the basis of the Euromaidan revolution, between the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014. And that event was also cited by Vladimir Putin in the speech after the May 9 parade as one of the causes, not the main one, but one of the causes that led the Kremlin to decide not only the annexation of Crimea in 2014 but also the further attack on Ukrainian territory in February 2022.
Regardless of what the expectations and concrete probabilities of this happening may be, I believe the Kremlin would not react militarily to block such a situation. I think the approach would be different compared to accession to NATO.
Certainly, however, this would further worsen relations between Russia and the European Union.
Let us not forget that, especially after the issue of European rearmament, Russian propaganda, as we also see from the results of Russian public opinion polls, has created a new political adversary, a new enemy.
In the current Kremlin narrative, the primary enemy is the European Union. It is no longer the United States. At least as long as Donald Trump’s presidency lasts, then everything is to be seen.
Thinking in the short term, it is clear that a possible European perspective for Ukraine would further delay the resumption of dialogue. And very likely, Putin’s proposal to even appoint Gerhard Schröder, or in any case to identify a figure who can reopen dialogue with the European Union, demonstrates precisely that for the Kremlin the European Union is now the main political adversary.
This is a situation that European leaders will have to take into account when they think about the future of relations with Russia, with or without Putin.
(Excerpt from Appunti)
