With the curtain closed on the G7 in Evian, the shadow of the Élysée Palace begins to loom over the French political calendar. The summit of the so-called great powers of the Earth was probably Emmanuel Macron’s last stage. France is preparing to say goodbye next year, and his departure opens a chasm in the center of French politics and, ultimately, also in European politics.
Usually, at this point, there would be dozens of contenders, but this time the circle is tightening quickly. The French seem to be facing a six-player game: six candidates seeking authorship engaged in a test of endurance, where the legacy of a certainly controversial and often contested president becomes the battleground between old guards and new media phenomena. Let’s see who they are.
THE MODERATES AND THE WEIGHT OF THE LEGACY
Édouard Philippe moves with the confidence of someone who knows how to wait their turn. The former prime minister, now mayor of Le Havre, has understood that to win he must put distance between himself and Macron. While still supporting Europe and the free market, Philippe emphasizes public accounts and is not afraid to say uncomfortable things, such as the need to work until 67: in France, this is a sure declaration of social war. He is the favorite of the moderates but knows well that in France being the favorite at the start of the race often does not bode well. The old Vatican saying – whoever enters as Pope leaves as cardinal – also applies around the Élysée.
On the same track is Gabriel Attal. He was Macron’s protégé, the youngest to lead the government, but the relationship broke sharply when the president dissolved the National Assembly almost without his knowledge. Since then, Attal has been trying to make a name for himself, attempting to cleanse the Renaissance party of the elitist image that has held it back. He bets everything on state efficiency and education, trying to win young people over from the appeal of the right.
THE THREE FACES OF THE NATIONAL RIGHT
The Rassemblement National (RN) is experiencing a paradoxical situation. Polls show them as winners, but Marine Le Pen risks not even making it to the starting line. Her political future hangs on a court ruling expected in July: if the judges confirm the misuse of European funds, she would become ineligible.
This is where Jordan Bardella comes into play, the “plan B” who is becoming the main choice for many supporters. In his thirties, excellent at communicating on social media and with a personal story starting from tough suburbs, Bardella is liked because he seems less radical and more attentive to the economy compared to the party leader. He is also a new face, a breath of fresh air after the long and sometimes turbulent family saga of the Le Pens.
Completing the picture on the right is Bruno Retailleau, chosen by the Republicans (les Républicains). He represents the hardline and pure stance: order, security, and Catholic roots. Immigration, security, and territorial control will be central issues in the upcoming electoral campaign. As a former Interior Minister (he was replaced last October by Laurent Nuñez), he can boast considerable expertise in the field. A representative of the more institutional right-wing faction, he tries to bring his party back to the glory days of Chirac and Sarkozy, using tones that often chase those of the nationalists. And it is known, when the tones are the same, voters often choose the original. Retailleau is, however, destined to play a central role in this campaign: it is likely that traditional right-wing voters will determine the outcome of a possible runoff between the Macronian center and the Rassemblement National.
THE FRACTURES OF THE LEFT
On the other side of the barricade, Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains the man of the streets and great clashes. The leader of La France Insoumise (LFI) has not yet officially said whether he will try again for the fourth time. His official position remains cautious; he has repeatedly stated that he will run only if it is deemed “necessary” and if the entire progressive coalition can rally around his name. But his public statements and the internal dynamics of the French left leave the door wide open, and his supporters seem to have no doubts.
Mélenchon continues to shake up the debate with Eurosceptic positions and sympathies for Moscow, even leading to violent ruptures with former Socialist allies. He is a figure that divides the country: beloved by young people and in the banlieues, he is seen as a danger by much of the moderate electorate. But the polarization triggered by the multiple crises (economic, energy, geopolitical) sweeping through Europe could favor the rise of radicalism, similar to what is happening in neighboring Germany. In this scenario, his strong personal electoral base and the 2022 result keep the leader of La France Insoumise at the center of the leadership game of the gauche.
TEN MONTHS OF PASSION
With a radicalized left, a center trying to unite, and a sovereignist right that feels its moment has come, France is preparing for ten months of very high tensions. At stake is not only the future of Paris but the very face of Europe. And who knows if the next president’s name will really emerge from these six contenders. Or if the ever less stable French elites will once again manage the feat of pulling out of the hat a figure capable of reshuffling the cards once more. As happened with Macron ten years ago.
