You need to look at the points of the memorandum, one by one, to understand how disastrous the United States’ record is. Under each point is the comment in italics.
The Memorandum
1. Immediate and Permanent End to Military Operations
The United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and their respective allies in the ongoing war declare, by signing this memorandum of understanding, the immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
The parties commit from now on not to initiate any war or military operation against each other, not to threaten or use force against each other, and to guarantee the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
The final agreement will confirm the permanent cessation of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and the other provisions of this paragraph.
The important part of this point concerns Lebanon, where the war is being waged by Israel, not the United States. And Israel does not sign the memorandum. Therefore, the only way to interpret this article is that Iran has obtained from the United States a guarantee that the Trump administration will prevent Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government from continuing its offensive in Lebanon.
So, in one fell swoop, Iran obtains certification of Israel’s subordination to the United States and its limited autonomy to pursue objectives contrary to those of Washington. Furthermore, the ayatollah regime ensures that the two war fronts – Iran and Lebanon – are linked by a common fate.
Every move by Netanyahu in Lebanon against the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia becomes an attack on peace towards the entire international community.
2. Sovereignty and Non-Interference
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to mutually respect sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
This second point contradicts the promises made by Donald Trump to Iranian protesters. On January 13, Trump even incited revolt: “Iranian patriots, keep protesting, take your institutions!!!… help is on the way.” Just over a month later, Trump and Israel attacked Iran.
Today, however, the United States commit not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs, that is, not to question the massacres, mass imprisonments, torture, and executions that the regime and the Revolutionary Guards use to suppress all dissent.
Of course, theoretically this point also binds Iran not to attempt operations such as sabotaging the 2024 presidential campaign, when Iranian hackers stole and disseminated a dossier on the current vice president JD Vance. But this point is much heavier for Washington than for Tehran.
3. Negotiation Within 60 Days
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiate and reach the final agreement within a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
4. End of the US Naval Blockade
Immediately after signing the memorandum, the United States of America will begin removing the naval blockade and any interference or impediment against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will completely end the naval blockade within 30 days.
During this period, maritime traffic will be restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran in proportion to pre-war levels.
The United States of America also commit to withdraw their forces from the vicinity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days of the final agreement.
Not only do the United States renounce the counter naval blockade that remained during the first phase of the truce, but they commit to withdrawing ships from the area: in practice, they recognize that the Strait of Hormuz is part of Iran’s sphere of influence and that Iran can autonomously manage it.
5. Passage of Commercial Ships Through the Strait of Hormuz
With the signing of the memorandum, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make every effort to provide conditions for the safe passage of commercial ships, at no cost, for only 60 days, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.
Commercial ship traffic will resume immediately and, considering the need to remove technical and military obstacles and to proceed with demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be fully restored within 30 days.
The Islamic Republic of Iran will initiate dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in consultation with other coastal states of the Persian Gulf, respecting applicable international law and the sovereign rights of the coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran promises to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to traffic under pre-war conditions, but only for 60 days. It is inferred from this point that the new stable arrangement must be different. And the wording of this point leaves open the possibility that Iran may request tolls or other compensation for crossing a stretch of sea that before the war had no such constraints.
6. Plan of at Least 300 Billion Dollars for Iran
The United States of America commit, together with regional partners, to develop a definitive and mutually agreed plan, worth at least 300 billion dollars, for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The implementation mechanism of this plan will be finalized within the framework of the final agreement within 60 days.
All licenses, exemptions, and authorizations necessary for the related financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
This is exactly a point reminiscent of the Versailles Peace Treaty a century ago: war reparations are established, but back then it was clear who had to pay them, namely Germany. The aggressor had to compensate the aggrieved.
Today everything is more ambiguous: Iran acquires the clear status of a victim to be compensated, and that alone is a great success. But it is not clear who will foot the bill. Either these funds come from states, private entities, or some dedicated revenue source, such as possible tolls for crossing Hormuz.
Trump excluded that the United States would provide the capital: the administration would like to limit itself to intermediating these resources, turning them into an opportunity at least for American financial firms that could manage the procedures. But it is obvious that such an influx of loosely controlled funds can also create many opportunities for hefty profits in gray areas between politics and corruption in which people around Trump and the president himself move extensively.
It is the same scheme that Trump had proposed for the reconstruction of Gaza through the Board of Peace. It has never been heard of again, and there is no evidence that anyone has actually deposited money into the Board of Peace, let alone that funds have been spent on the ground.
7. End of Sanctions Against Iran
The United States of America commit to ending all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, according to a schedule agreed upon within the final agreement.
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America recognize the critical importance of ending sanctions and declare their intention to immediately address these issues in negotiations to reach a mutual agreement.
As formulated, it seems like a complete and total end to sanctions that for over forty years have limited Iran’s access to international markets, especially oil. The sanctions do not lapse immediately, but the direction of the negotiation is clear.
This gradualism is the only negotiating leverage the United States seem to have maintained, because they can control the speed of Tehran’s reintegration into the international economy to obtain concessions.
8. Nuclear, Enriched Material, and Enrichment
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it will not acquire or develop nuclear weapons.
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the issue of the destination of accumulated enriched material according to a mutually agreed mechanism, based on the schedule indicated in paragraph 7. The minimum methodology foreseen will be on-site dilution of enriched material under IAEA supervision.
The two parties have also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed topics related to the nuclear needs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on a satisfactory framework to be defined in the final agreement.
The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this paragraph.
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran recognize the critical importance of the nuclear issues indicated above and declare their intention to address them immediately in negotiations to reach a mutual agreement.
Much has already been said and written about this eighth point: in fact, Iran’s official position is recognized, which has always said it wants nuclear energy only for civilian purposes, a choice not obvious for one of the countries with the largest oil reserves in the world and therefore without an immediate energy supply problem.
Trump, like the anti-Iran “hawks,” has always said he does not believe these reassurances: the real goal is the bomb.
But now the Iranian line is formalized and officially shared by America. However, it does not return to the context of the JCPOA, the 2015 agreement mediated by the European Union. Here there are only vague commitments to negotiations and monitoring. And all the vagueness benefits Iran, obviously, which can make its choices without fear of violating such loose commitments.
9. Maintenance of the Status Quo Until the Final Agreement
Pending the final agreement, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo.
The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status of its nuclear program and the United States of America will not impose new sanctions nor deploy additional forces in the region.
10. US Exemptions for Iranian Oil and Related Services
The United States of America commit that, immediately after signing the memorandum and until the cessation of sanctions, the US Department of the Treasury will issue exemptions for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and for all related services, including banking transactions, insurance, transportation, and other services.
Another Iranian negotiating success: the first important result for Iran is granted immediately, even before the other aspects left pending by the memorandum are defined. So Trump, who has considered himself a great negotiator for years, deprives himself of the most relevant leverage at the first move.
If the United States start exempting sanctions on Iranian oil right away, they make the promise to remove all other sanctions much less decisive.
11. Release of Iranian Funds and Assets
The United States of America commit to making fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
With the implementation of the memorandum, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiation.
Such funds, whether remaining in the original accounts or transferred, must be made fully usable for payments to any final beneficiary indicated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The United States of America commit to issuing all necessary licenses and authorizations.
Another Iranian triumph. No concessions to the Americans, no compromises, only full access to resources blocked abroad.
If one wants to find some utility for America, at least from Donald Trump’s perspective, it is that concessions like this send a clear message to Vladimir Putin: a rogue state can be reintegrated into the Western economic-financial system even without any regime change.
However, Putin might draw the wrong lesson, namely that if you put Western powers in difficulty by hitting their economy, they are forced to make concessions.
12. Monitoring Mechanism
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the proper implementation of the memorandum and the future compliance with the final agreement.
13. Start of Negotiations on the Final Agreement
After signing the memorandum, and subject to the start of implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of the memorandum itself, as well as the continuation of the implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations on the final agreement exclusively on the other paragraphs.
14. Binding UN Security Council Resolution
The final agreement will be approved by a binding resolution of the United Nations Security Council.
Donald Trump pontificated at the UN about the irrelevance of multilateral governance, withdrew the United States from many United Nations organizations, created the Board of Peace as a privatized alternative. And, above all, launched a war in Iran without a shred of a UN resolution that existed even for the 2003 Iraq war and for the very creation of the Board of Peace.
