American President Trump will arrive in Beijing tomorrow evening for his first trip to China since 2017, meeting the next day with Xi Jinping in a high-stakes bilateral summit, despite planned scenic moments such as a tour of the famous Temple of Heaven and a tea ceremony.
Amid business, geopolitics, and accumulated tensions, the two leaders will try to extend the trade truce signed last October in South Korea, but expectations for major breakthroughs remain low.
As highlighted by the New York Times, peace and stability will be the public message, while behind the scenes both countries prepare for a possible economic escalation.
A personal relationship with ups and downs
Trump and Xi have known each other for years and have built a relationship described by Bloomberg as a “bromance” that survived tariff wars, the pandemic, and energy crises.
They have met at least six times, with iconic moments such as the dinner at Mar-a-Lago in 2017 or Trump’s visit to the Forbidden City. Despite tensions, both have always emphasized mutual respect.
Trump has called Xi a “great leader” and a “friend,” while Xi has spoken of “a thousand reasons to make China-US relations work.”
According to Bloomberg, this personal bond contrasts with Joe Biden’s more formal approach, who never visited China as president.
This week’s summit—the first face-to-face since October 2025 in Busan, South Korea—comes after a one-year trade truce that halved some tariffs and suspended rare earth restrictions.
Following Trump
Trump is not traveling alone. As revealed by CNBC and confirmed by the New York Times, he will be accompanied by a large group of top American executives, a clear sign of the emphasis on the economic agenda.
Among them are Elon Musk of Tesla, Tim Cook of Apple, Larry Fink of BlackRock, Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, Kelly Ortberg of Boeing, Jane Fraser of Citigroup, David Solomon of Goldman Sachs, Cristiano Amon of Qualcomm, Sanjay Mehrotra of Micron, and other leaders from Cargill, GE Aerospace, Mastercard, Meta, Visa, and Illumina. Chuck Robbins of Cisco declined due to business commitments.
The goal, according to White House sources, is to facilitate announcements of deals in sectors such as aerospace, agriculture, and energy. Boeing and American soybean producers hope for large Chinese orders, while tech companies aim to stabilize relations on exports and investments.
Topics on the agenda: trade, AI, and investments
The agenda is full. As reported by the Financial Times, Trump and Xi will discuss the creation of a “Board of Trade” to manage exchanges of non-sensitive products and a “Board of Investment” for bilateral investments.
American sources cited by Reuters and the New York Times speak of the American “Five B’s” (Boeing, beef, beans, Board of Trade, and Board of Investment) versus the Chinese “Three T’s” (tariffs, technology, Taiwan).
The Board of Trade will be a kind of trade table with the limited goal of selecting the products the two countries intend to exchange, such as Boeing airplanes, soybean seeds, meat, and energy supplies.
It is unclear whether the trade truce will be formally extended in Beijing or later, but both sides want to avoid a new tariff escalation.
They will also discuss artificial intelligence, with the opening of a possible direct communication channel on the risks of advanced models, similar to the nuclear “hotline” established during the US-Soviet Cold War.
Points of friction
Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive dossiers. China is pushing the United States to adopt stronger language against the island’s independence, while Washington approved record arms packages for Taipei worth over $11 billion in December, with another $14 billion on the way.
Other issues include technology restrictions, chip export controls, and supply chain decoupling.
The New York Times highlights how both countries are strengthening their “economic weapons”: sanctions, blacklists, and rules to punish those who move production out of China.
Bloomberg points out that despite the personal relationship between the two leaders, tensions over trade, Taiwan, and technology have deepened over the years.
The war in Iran
Iran will also be discussed. As reported by the Financial Times, Trump will ask Xi to curb Chinese support to Tehran, including the supply of dual-use components and possibly even weapons. The United States has sanctioned Chinese companies for providing satellite imagery and air defense systems to the Islamic Republic.
Beijing has also ordered its refineries to ignore American sanctions, an unprecedented act of defiance.
Trump wants China to use its influence to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and push Iran toward an agreement. As Reuters notes, the conflict has complicated global energy markets and delayed the summit itself.
The New York Times adds that Beijing is cautiously mediating, supporting Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear use but also the need to reopen the strait.
A fragile truce
Expectations are low. As the Economist writes, there will be no “grand bargain” but at most an extension of the truce, purchase announcements, and dialogue mechanisms.
Edgard D. Kagan of CSIS speaks of a modest step toward greater predictability in relations. Both leaders have an interest in showing stability: Trump for economic successes, Xi to buy time on Chinese technological development.
However, structural distrust remains. China has stockpiled energy and diversified markets, while the US pushes to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths. Bloomberg describes the relationship as “fragile, transactional, and more tied to what could go wrong than what goes right.”
After this summit, three more will follow in 2026, including a possible visit by Xi to Washington. For now, the goal is to avert the worst.
