(The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead, April 28, 2026)
According to Walter Russell Mead, despite initial difficulties and establishment criticism, it is premature to consider Trump’s war against Iran an irreversible strategic disaster. From the White House’s perspective, the conflict appears manageable: the naval blockade in the Gulf is effective, markets have stabilized, support from Gulf countries has grown, and American military options are expanding with the arrival of a third aircraft carrier. Trump does not seem desperate in search of an exit, maintaining control of his electoral base while problems with Russia and China worsen.
Critics argue that Trump has walked into a trap from which he cannot escape without humiliation, but Mead urges not to underestimate American resilience and not to overestimate Iran’s ability to resist for long. Moscow benefits from high oil prices but is losing ground in Ukraine and Africa, while Beijing watches with concern as the United States is ready to impose costly blockades even against allies’ opposition, a worrying signal for any plan regarding Taiwan. Financial markets have reacted better than expected, and pressure on Iran continues to grow.
History teaches that regional wars centered on energy do not damage markets for long and that declaring American defeat now means ignoring Washington’s capacity to sustain a prolonged effort. For investors and decision-makers, it is risky to bet everything on a catastrophic scenario when Trump can still afford to wait for internal pressure on Iran to produce results.
Trump Is Not Seeking a Desperate Exit
“Seen from the Oval Office, the war might seem less costly than critics claim, and the likelihood of a favorable outcome might appear significantly greater than a horrified foreign policy establishment can believe.”
Effective Blockade and Expanding Options
“In the Gulf, U.S. naval forces have consolidated, without losses, an overwhelming blockade of Iran that Tehran seems unable to counter. Financial markets have stabilized and have even recorded a strengthening despite the Strait’s closure.”
Strategic Lesson for Beijing on Taiwan
“The success of U.S.-imposed embargoes on Venezuela and Iran demonstrates strategic depth and political will that could considerably complicate China’s goal of forcing Taiwan into obedience.”
Limited Effects on Russia and China
“Trump is probably not losing sleep over the conflict’s impact so far on power balances with Russia and China. Russia may reap exceptional profits from the oil price surge, but American energy companies are experiencing a more substantial and likely longer-lasting boom.”
Not the Time to Declare Defeat
“War is unpredictable, and Trump’s critics might still prevail. […] However, for now, the president can afford to wait and see how the increasing pressure affects the Iranian side. Betting everything on TACO scenarios seems dangerously premature.”
(Excerpt from the newsletter by Giuseppe Liturri)
