Trump announced on Saturday that a peace agreement with Iran is “largely negotiated” and includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes for a swift end to the war that began in late February.
However, Tehran immediately downplayed the American statements, while yesterday the US president urged proceeding with caution.
As the New York Times writes, a preliminary memorandum of understanding seems close, but the issues of nuclear matters, control of the Strait, and sanctions remain unresolved.
Trump’s announcement
On Saturday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “an agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization” between the United States, Iran, and other involved countries. “The final aspects and details of the Deal are currently under discussion and will be announced shortly,” he added, emphasizing that a central element is precisely the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
As reported by the Financial Times, the president described the understanding as a memorandum of understanding on peace, following a series of calls with Middle Eastern leaders and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, which he called “very positive.”
The Donald met in person with his negotiators, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to review the latest proposals received through Pakistani mediation.
Bloomberg highlights that Trump’s announcement comes after weeks of intense diplomatic efforts, with Pakistan and Qatar at the forefront, while the fragile ceasefire has held since early April.
Iranian reactions
Tehran responded cautiously. The Fars agency, close to the Revolutionary Guards, called the White House chief’s statements “inconsistent with reality,” reiterating that the management of the Strait of Hormuz – routes, timing, permits, and authorizations – will remain the “exclusive monopoly and discretion” of the Islamic Republic. As the Guardian writes, this remains a red line for Washington.
Three senior Iranian officials told the New York Times that the memorandum would stop fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon, reopen the Strait without tolls, end the US naval blockade, and release $25 billion in frozen assets abroad.
The issues
One of the most delicate issues remains the fate of Iran’s nuclear program and the stockpile of highly enriched uranium held by the ayatollahs.
According to American sources cited by the Associated Press, Iran has “in principle” agreed to hand over its approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. The concrete methods – dilution under international supervision or transfer to a third country such as Russia – would be defined only in negotiations over the next 30-60 days.
Three senior Iranian officials told the New York Times instead that the current memorandum contains no specific commitments on nuclear issues and that all matters related to enrichment will be subject to future negotiations, with no immediate surrender of the stockpile.
As Bloomberg points out, this interpretative divergence leaves open the risk that the preliminary agreement serves more to freeze the conflict than to definitively resolve the nuclear issue.
The decisive role of mediators
Islamabad’s mediation has proven crucial. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly congratulated Trump for his “extraordinary efforts for peace” and announced that his country is ready to host a new round of talks “very soon.”
As highlighted by Reuters, the head of the Pakistani army, Syed Asim Munir, returning from meetings in Tehran with President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, was a key figure.
On Saturday, Trump spoke with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Turkey, and Pakistan. The Financial Times emphasizes that these allies strongly pushed to give diplomacy more time, averting the risk of a resumption of bombings that Trump had threatened until just days before.
Internal US criticism
The prospect of an agreement provoked immediate reactions from the hardline wing of the Republican Party.
As Bloomberg writes, former CIA chief and Secretary of State under Trump’s first term Mike Pompeo harshly attacked the deal, calling it too similar to Obama’s JCPOA and a “gift” to the Pasdaran.
The White House did not remain silent: communications director Steven Cheung urged Pompeo to “shut up” because “he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”
However, NBC News notes that senators Roger Wicker, Ted Cruz, and Lindsey Graham also spoke on Sunday of a “disaster” that would nullify military gains and leave the Iranian regime strengthened.
As the Guardian reports, Ben Rhodes joked that the war would have ended up strengthening precisely Iran’s control over the Strait.
Trump urges caution
On Sunday, the tone changed markedly. Trump wrote that he had ordered negotiators “not to rush into a deal” and that “time is on our side.” The naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain in effect until the final signature.
As Reuters reports, a senior American official confirmed that the agreement would not be signed immediately and that mechanisms for handing over enriched uranium still need to be refined.
Regional sources cited by the Associated Press speak of a gradual reopening of the Strait in parallel with the end of the blockade, a 60-day period for nuclear negotiations, and the end of fighting also in Lebanon.
Tehran continues to insist on its authority over the Strait, the lifting of sanctions, and the release of frozen funds.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke of “significant but not definitive progress,” confirming that the goal remains to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Markets nonetheless welcomed the news with relief, pushing oil prices below $100 a barrel, although experts warn that normalization of traffic will take weeks or months.
