Between yesterday and the early hours of today, Israel and Iran exchanged missile attacks, signaling how fragile the ceasefire reached in April has become.
After the launch of about ten Iranian ballistic missiles against Israel on Sunday, in direct retaliation for Israeli raids on the suburbs of Beirut carried out the same day by the IDF, Tel Aviv responded by striking military targets in central and western Iran, including a strategic petrochemical plant. Shortly thereafter, more missiles were launched from Iran towards Israel, intercepted by air defense systems.
The Trump administration tried in every way to contain the spiral of violence, with the president personally calling Netanyahu yesterday to ask him to avoid an immediate reaction.
Meanwhile, markets reacted nervously, pushing the price of oil above $95 per barrel.
This is an escalation that arrived exactly on the hundredth day of a conflict that continues to drag on, involving Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis.
The sequence of events
The new chain of violence began on Sunday, when the Israeli air force bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut, hitting a Hezbollah command center in response to rocket and drone launches towards northern Israel. The operation caused at least two deaths and about twenty injuries in Lebanon, according to the New York Times.
Tehran, which considers Hezbollah a fundamental strategic ally, reacted promptly: a few hours later it launched about ten ballistic missiles against Israeli territory, marking the first direct attack of this kind since the April ceasefire.
During the night and early hours of today, Israel carried out its counteroffensive, striking several military targets in western and central Iran. As Bloomberg writes, the IDF confirmed raids on “military targets,” while Iranian sources reported an attack on a petrochemical plant in Mahshahr, in Khuzestan province, a key area for the country’s energy industry. Explosions were clearly heard in Tehran and the cities of Isfahan, Tabriz, and Karaj.
In response, Iran immediately closed the airspace around its main international airport Imam Khomeini and accused Israel of using ballistic missiles launched from aircraft.
Iran strikes back
In the early hours of this morning, Iran launched a new salvo of ballistic missiles against Israel, the second significant wave in a few hours, confirming the dangerous escalation underway between the two historic adversaries.
According to the Israeli army and reported by the New York Times, Tehran fired several dozen missiles towards the center, north, and other areas of the country, a few hours after the first nighttime attack that had already forced hundreds of thousands of Israelis to take shelter in bunkers.
All missiles were reportedly successfully intercepted by air defense systems or fell in uninhabited areas, causing no casualties or significant damage. “Defense systems are operating to intercept the threat,” the IDF said according to CNN.
The risk of a wider fire
The escalation has not stopped with the two direct contenders. As reported by the Associated Press, a missile launched from Yemen, almost certainly by the pro-Iranian Houthis, was intercepted over Israel, while alarm sirens also sounded in Saudi Arabia near the Prince Sultan airbase hosting American troops.
And just recently, reported by Bloomberg, the Houthis declared a ban on Israeli ships transiting the Red Sea, stating they have the right to “confront the American-Israeli aggression.” “We declare a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea,” the group said in a statement, specifying that “we consider all enemy movements as legitimate military targets for our Armed Forces.”
Iran has also issued clear warnings about the possible even greater involvement of its proxy militias if the attacks continue.
Trump’s position
The American administration has strongly tried to contain the crisis. As reported by the Guardian, Donald Trump personally called the Israeli prime minister last night to urge him not to immediately respond to the Iranian missile attack, believing he had persuaded him to “temporarily suspend the reaction.”
Despite this, after strong pressure from the hawks within his own government, Tel Aviv decided to proceed with the raids anyway.
Trump then publicly stated on Fox News that he was not at all happy with the Israeli action on Beirut, calling it uncoordinated with Washington and counterproductive for ongoing negotiations with the Islamic Republic, but he also sent a direct message to Tehran: “Stop firing missiles and come back to the table.”
As the Financial Times writes, in an interview the American president strongly reiterated his dominant role: “I’m the one in charge. I’m in charge of everything. He [Netanyahu] is not in charge.”
Oil prices surge
Markets reacted immediately to the escalation. As Bloomberg notes, Brent gained over 3%, surpassing $95-96 per barrel in early Asian trading, while WTI reached around $93.
The FT records similar increases, fueled mainly by concerns over the Strait of Hormuz – still partially blocked – and possible new disruptions in global energy supplies.
The dollar also strengthened as a traditional safe haven asset in times of geopolitical tension.
