The difficulties of the Merz government open political scenarios in Germany that are yet to be deciphered, and it is unclear whether the state of the economy or the prospects of politics are more troubling today. The latest polls deliver a result that until recently would have seemed unlikely: the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has become the country’s leading political force and, in recent weeks, has even increased its lead over the only political force that seems capable of standing up to it, the Union of CDU and CSU.
The result is not only symbolic, because in practice it further complicates an already fragile picture, in which building a stable majority will become increasingly difficult.
NUMBERS THAT CHANGE THE PICTURE
The most recent surveys by the Insa institute for the newspaper Bild and by Forsa for the television broadcaster RTL both indicate AfD between 27 and 28% nationally, ahead of the Union (CDU/CSU), which stands at 23.5% according to Insa and even 22% according to Forsa. The overtaking is therefore consolidated and certified also by other polling institutes traditionally more cautious. Moreover, the gap is beginning to be no longer so small and above all is increasing compared to previous surveys.
The trend is clear and the political significance equally evident: it is the highest point ever reached by the ultra-nationalist party and confirms continuous growth that began after the 2025 federal elections. Since then, AfD has gained over six points, while the conservatives led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz have lost ground, slipping to five or six points behind, depending on the surveys.
Meanwhile, the other parties are unable to regain ground. The SPD remains stuck around 14% according to Insa and 12% according to Forsa, with no signs of recovery, while the Greens (Grüne) are at 12.5% for Insa (roughly at the same level as the radical left Linke) or 15% for Forsa: in this case, they would be the driving force (so to speak) of the left-wing bloc. But essentially, more than a clear shift, what emerges is a dispersion of consensus that makes the system more unstable and less predictable.
THE WEIGHT OF SMALLER PARTIES
A decisive element, often underestimated, concerns the parties that, if elections were held next Sunday, would remain outside the Bundestag. The liberals of the FDP and the left-wing dissident faction BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht’s party), according to current data, would not surpass the 5% threshold. This means that a not insignificant portion of the electorate – between 12% and 13% – would not be represented in parliament.
The result has an immediate mathematical effect: to obtain a majority it is no longer necessary to exceed 50% of the total votes, but it is enough to reach around 44-45%. In theory, therefore, the threshold lowers. In practice, however, things do not become simpler. The relationships between parties remain blocked by very rigid red lines, and this weighs more than the numbers.
MAJORITIES ON PAPER, NOT IN REALITY
Looking at possible combinations, the problem becomes evident. The current coalition between the Union and SPD would no longer have the numbers: together they stop just below 40%. Even an alliance between SPD, Greens, and Linke would remain far from the necessary threshold.
Paradoxically, the only solid majority already exists on paper: that between the Union and AfD, which would reach around 52%. A very decisive shift to the right in the political balance in Germany. But it is a hypothesis that the CDU continues to exclude without ambiguity. This is where the current deadlock arises. The only theoretically feasible alternative is a three-party coalition between the Union, SPD, and Greens – the so-called “Kenya” – which would allow surpassing the required threshold.
In short, the risk at the national level is not currently that of a government led or conditioned by the far right, but the instability that AfD’s success is capable of triggering.
Meanwhile, discontent with the government is also growing: more than 70% of voters say they are dissatisfied. A figure that, more than individual shifts in the polls, helps to understand why consensus is redistributing so irregularly.
THE SAXONY-ANHALT CROSSROADS
While at the federal level any hypothesis involving AfD remains excluded, in the eastern Länder the situation is less straightforward. The regional elections in September, especially those on the 6th in Saxony-Anhalt, could mark an important turning point (the other two will be held on the 20th in the Länder of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania).
In this small eastern Land, for years, the CDU has maintained control of the regional government. But in recent months the situation has reversed: polls indicate AfD in the lead, approaching 40% of the votes. Adding to the uncertainty is the departure of long-time president Reiner Haseloff, who has decided not to run again.
The AfD candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, therefore presents himself with a concrete chance of taking the leadership of the Land. It would be an absolute novelty. On the other side, several parties risk not even entering the regional parliament, further reducing options to build an alternative majority.
It remains to be seen how close AfD will get to an absolute majority and, above all, whether the other parties will be able to stop it with a common agreement. The CDU, however, continues to exclude both a collaboration with AfD and an agreement with Linke at the regional level, further narrowing the field.
It is not unlikely that less conventional solutions will have to be resorted to. There is talk, for example, of minority governments, perhaps supported from the outside. The BSW, while rejecting a direct alliance with AfD, does not completely rule out forms of tolerance. At the same time, Linke could also become decisive for an alternative majority, while formally remaining outside direct agreements with the CDU.
In any case, after the September 6 vote, the formation of the government in Saxony-Anhalt risks becoming a long and complex process. And what happens there could offer a broader indication of where German politics as a whole is heading.
