(El País, Carlos Molina, April 28, 2026)
First Vice President and Minister of Economy Carlos Cuerpo announced that on Thursday the government will send the progress report of the fiscal plan to Brussels, confirming that Spain continues to comply with European rules on deficit and debt, without macroeconomic imbalances. However, due to the war in the Middle East and the surge in energy prices, the executive will update the macroeconomic forecasts only at the end of June, before the presentation of the next budgets, to have a clearer picture of the real impact of the already adopted 5 billion euro anti-crisis measures.
The government currently maintains the GDP growth forecast at 2.2% for 2026, which would allow Spain to lead EU growth for the fifth consecutive year, but acknowledges that the conflict could lead to a downward revision of growth and an upward revision of inflation. Cuerpo cited recent analyses from the IMF and the International Energy Agency that shift the scenario towards the more adverse or severe due to the instability of energy and food prices. The goal is to avoid the increase in the basic basket lasting as long as it did after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where it lasted between six and twelve months.
At the same time, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and King Felipe VI inaugurated in Madrid the second edition of the Invest in Spain Summit to attract foreign investments, emphasizing that in times of geopolitical turbulence Spain represents a reliable partner thanks to renewables, job creation, and a stable and predictable institutional framework, with strategic ties to America, the Mediterranean, and Africa.
Sending the progress report to Brussels
“First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, stated yesterday that the Executive will submit to Brussels on Thursday the progress report of the fiscal plan, where it reveals the degree of compliance with fiscal rules, both in reducing debt and public deficit.”
Macroeconomic framework update in June
“‘It is too early to have a grounded idea. We still need information on what the impact of the measures we have put on the table is, and it will be at the end of June when we see how we update that macroeconomic scenario, once sources of uncertainty are reduced. From there we will already have the basis for the presentation of the Budgets.’”
Temporary maintenance of forecasts
“In its latest forecasts, the Executive hoped for an annual GDP growth of 2.2% for this year, with which Spain will chain five consecutive years leading GDP growth in the EU, and 2.1% for 2027.”
Risk of downward revision due to the war
“After the outbreak of the war in Iran and the exponential rise in energy prices, the Government activated an anti-crisis plan of 80 measures with aid worth 5,000 million euros. […] The Minister of Economy mentioned a report prepared by CaixaBank Research […] ‘We are trying to avoid that happening.’”
Appeal to international investors
“‘In times of turbulence, Spain is the best travel companion.’ ‘Spain has created half of the employment in the European Union, has guaranteed energy supply through the bet on renewables, and for the first time in 60 years has less debt than the world average,’ Sánchez pointed out.”
(Excerpt from the newsletter by Giuseppe Liturri)
