The possibility that the Strait of Hormuz ends up under Iranian control is pushing the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf to reconsider a series of projects designed to bypass it.
The Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway in the world for fossil fuel trade – under normal conditions, about one fifth of all gas and oil transported by sea passes through it every day – and it connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, thus guaranteeing access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. For the hydrocarbon-producing countries of the region, in short, freedom of navigation through this passage is crucial.
Alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, at least on paper, do exist. They would allow Gulf countries to reduce their vulnerability to Iran, their regional adversary. But development has been abandoned – until now, at least – due to high costs, technical difficulties, and long construction times.
SAUDI ARABIA’S EAST-WEST PIPELINE
As the Financial Times wrote, the war with Iran has highlighted the strategic value of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a 1,200-kilometer-long pipeline built in the 1980s that connects the city of Jubail, on the Persian Gulf, to Yanbu, on the Red Sea. From Yanbu, oil shipments can reach the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal, or the Arabian Sea – and thus the Indian Ocean – passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. However, the latter is not a completely safe passage: in Yemen there are the Houthis, an armed group affiliated with Iran that recently also attacked Israel.
At this moment of near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, however, the East-West pipeline is proving fundamental for Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, on which the public budget depends. Amin Nasser, CEO of the state company Saudi Aramco, stated that the East-West is “the main route we are focusing on right now.” Currently, 7 million barrels of oil per day pass through this pipeline, and Saudi Arabia is considering increasing its capacity, or even building new pipelines.
A NETWORK OF PIPELINES
According to Maisoon Kafafy, consultant at the Atlantic Council and Middle East expert, Gulf countries would be better off not investing individually in pipeline construction, but rather focusing on developing “a network of corridors” in the region.
THE IMEC PROJECT FROM INDIA TO THE MEDITERRANEAN
An option as advantageous as it is ambitious is the Imec maritime-rail corridor, which starts from India, reaches the Arabian Peninsula, and finally connects to the Mediterranean Sea.
The project was launched in 2023 and involves India, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Italy, France, Germany, the United States, and the European Union. It is also known as the “Cotton Road,” a reference to the Chinese “Silk Road,” to which it aims to offer an alternative.
The corridor would begin at Indian ports, from where goods would be transported to the United Arab Emirates and then continue overland to Saudi Arabia and Jordan up to the Israeli port of Haifa; from Haifa, finally, shipments would be sent to other ports on the Mediterranean Sea. However, Israel is not among the countries that signed the Imec memorandum of understanding.
COSTS
According to Christopher Bush – CEO of the Lebanese company Cat Group, which played a leading role in the construction of the East-West pipeline – the development costs of a similar infrastructure would be extremely high today. Building a twin pipeline would cost at least 5 billion dollars due to the excavation difficulties in the hard basalt deposits in the Hegiaz mountains, near Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. A more complex project, crossing Iraq, Jordan, Syria, or Turkey, would cost 15-20 billion. Even potential pipelines to Oman’s ports would have to deal with technical difficulties caused by crossing deserts and hard rock formations; moreover, Omani ports are not safe from Iran, as demonstrated by recent drone attacks on the port of Salalah.
THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES’ PROJECT
As for the United Arab Emirates, they can already bypass the Strait of Hormuz thanks to the Fujairah pipeline. This 3,600-kilometer pipeline connects the city of Habshan to Fujairah, which is located on the Gulf of Oman, just beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
According to an Emirati source from the Financial Times, Abu Dhabi has “a plan B for a second pipeline to Fujairah,” but has not yet made a final decision.
