To compensate for the loss of fuel supplies caused by the war in the Persian Gulf – Qatar, in particular, had to halt production due to attacks from Iran – the European Union has significantly increased imports of natural gas from Russia: more precisely liquefied natural gas, or LNG.
PURCHASES FROM YAMAL LNG
In the first quarter of 2026, in fact, the member countries of the Union increased their purchases of liquefied gas from the Yamal LNG plant in the Russian Arctic by 17 percent year-on-year, for a volume of five million tons and a total expenditure of 2.8 billion euros: the data collected by Kpler and estimates by Urgewald show. Of these five million tons of gas, almost two million were delivered in March: the war between the United States and Israel against Iran began on February 28.
Of the seventy-one liquefied gas shipments that left Yamal LNG in the first three months of 2026, sixty-nine – that is 97 percent – were headed to the European Union. For comparison, in the first quarter of 2025, sixty-eight shipments left Yamal LNG, and those destined for Europe accounted for 87 percent.
THE ROLE OF ASIA
The remaining shipments that departed from the plant from January to March went to Asia, the region most exposed to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and therefore with more urgent needs to secure substitute supplies. A few days ago Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin, announced that Russia is receiving many requests to purchase its fossil fuels, particularly from Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand.
On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that Russia has offered to sell liquefied gas processed at the Arctic LNG 2 and Portovaya plants (both under U.S. sanctions) to Southeast Asian countries at a 40 percent discount. “So far,” the agency specified, “China has been the only country importing sanctioned Russian LNG through a network of shadow fleet vessels.”
Last year, the European Union introduced sanctions to prohibit the transfer of Russian gas from one vessel to another, aiming to target trade towards Asia.
THE WAR ON IRAN BENEFITS RUSSIA
Despite numerous restrictions, the war in the Persian Gulf is still benefiting Russia because it has increased demand for its hydrocarbons and is allowing it to partially benefit from the rise in international oil and gas prices.
In March, the average gas price in Europe was over 50 euros per megawatt-hour, while in January and February it was 35 €/MWh. The prices set in supply contracts with Yamal LNG are not known, but they are probably not completely fixed – some flexibility is expected – and therefore they have likely risen as well.
WHERE THE EUROPEAN UNION’S GAS IMPORTS COME FROM
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, the European Union depended on Moscow for over 40 percent of its natural gas imports; last year, however, Russia’s share of total European gas supplies was 13 percent and is expected to drop to zero by 2027.
From over 150 billion cubic meters of gas (mainly by pipeline) that the European Union imported from Russia in 2021, the volume dropped to “just” 40.9 billion in 2025: the decline is significant, but Moscow remains a very important supplier. The EU member states that purchase the most Russian LNG are France, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium.
Today, however, the bloc’s main gas suppliers are Norway, with a 31 percent share, and the United States, with 25 percent.
