In April, US oil exports could reach a record level due to very strong demand from Asia. This is, in fact, the most exposed region to the Middle East crisis: much – if not most – of the crude oil and derivatives supplies for China, India, Japan, and South Korea come from the Persian Gulf. The ceasefire agreement reached Wednesday between the United States and Iran does not seem to have stabilized the situation: energy infrastructures continue to suffer attacks and the Strait of Hormuz is closed again.
HOW MUCH WILL US OIL EXPORTS GROW
The United States is the largest crude oil producer in the world and can therefore partly compensate for the volumes “lost” because they are blocked in the Persian Gulf, unable to reach international markets. According to Kpler’s data, this month American oil exports will grow to reach 5.2 million barrels per day, compared to 3.9 million in March. Demand from Asia will increase by 82 percent, to 2.5 million barrels.
Also according to Kpler, there are currently as many as 68 empty tankers heading to the United States to be loaded; at the end of February, before the war with Iran began, there were 28, a value in line with the 2025 average.
WHO CELEBRATES AND WHO DOES NOT
While the increase in exports – and prices: West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark contract in the United States, is around $110 per barrel, the highest in four years – is positive for the American oil industry, consumers are less happy and indeed worried about fuel price hikes. Gasoline prices have exceeded $4 per gallon (less than 1 euro per liter) for the first time in four years, and diesel prices (essential for agricultural vehicles) are close to the record of 5.8 euros per gallon.
Although not exposed to the risk of an oil supply interruption, the United States is still affected by rising prices, which impact fuel prices and ultimately the entire economy. Lowering the cost of living was one of President Donald Trump’s main promises, which he must consider ahead of the November midterm elections. Essentially, Trump’s foreign policy is coming into conflict with his domestic policy, and his approval rating is suffering negatively.
THE POSITION OF SHALE OIL PRODUCERS
To help lower international crude oil prices, the United States announced the release of 172 million barrels from its strategic reserve, in coordination with other members of the International Energy Agency. However, it is not certain that this measure will prove sufficient. Moreover, domestic production levels are not growing enough to mitigate the shock: shale oil producers, in particular, want more stability before investing in increasing extraction, fearing that the current price rally phase will not last long enough to recoup expenses.
BANNING EXPORTS?
Some politicians, like Democrat Brad Sherman, would therefore like to ban oil exports to keep crude at home and use it to stabilize fuel prices. However, such restrictive measures are unlikely to be introduced.
VENEZUELA’S CONTRIBUTION AND THE REFINING ISSUE
Oil flows from Venezuela are also contributing to exports, as the country’s oil sector has effectively come under US control after the deposition of President Nicolas Maduro. Venezuelan crude is a “heavy” and viscous variety, with very different characteristics compared to the shale oil extracted from American shale deposits: the latter is a “light” crude.
Most refineries in the United States were built in a historical period before the so-called shale revolution of the late 2000s, when the country was still heavily dependent on oil imports: consequently, these plants were designed to process “heavy” crudes. It is no coincidence that last month Trump announced with some emphasis the imminent opening of the first new oil refinery in the United States in fifty years: it will be located in Texas, in Brownsville, will have a processing capacity of 160,000 barrels per day, and will be designed precisely to process shale oil.
Having a high refining capacity is essential to exert influence on the oil market and possibly help lower fuel prices: after all, consumers do not use crude oil but its derivatives, such as diesel and gasoline. At this very moment, the United States can allocate Venezuelan “heavy” crude to their refineries and export greater quantities of “light” shale oil.
