For the first time in decades, the United States is about to surpass China in investments dedicated to fossil fuel-powered plants.
As highlighted by the Financial Times, which reports the news, the overtaking is mainly due to a real wave of gas turbine orders, driven by the urgent need to power new AI data centers.
While Beijing continues on its path, characterized by expansion of both coal and renewables, Washington is witnessing an acceleration in the fossil sector also favored by the political choices of the Trump administration.
The result is a moment of strong contradiction: on one side, technological demand pushes towards immediate and carbon-intensive solutions, on the other, the whole world continues to deal with rising emissions and an energy transition proceeding at different speeds from country to country.
The US Overtaking
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA) cited by the Financial Times, this year the United States is expected to invest around 50 billion dollars in coal and gas plants, exceeding Chinese spending by about three billion dollars.
This is a significant reversal of trend, breaking a dynamic that had seen China clearly in the lead for many years.
What is striking is not only the overall volume but also the way this value has grown: on one hand, there is the increase in the number of orders, on the other, the surge in turbine prices, which have jumped dramatically because demand has largely exceeded the production capacity of the main manufacturers.
The Frenzied Demand for Gas Turbines
In the first quarter of 2026 alone, the FT points out, American customers ordered about 20 GW of gas turbine capacity.
To understand the scale of the phenomenon, just consider that a single large AI data center can require from 1 GW up to several GW of power, an amount of energy comparable to that consumed by a large Western city.
Most of these plants are built off the public grid, so companies can generate the electricity they need directly without relying on existing infrastructure.
The big hyperscalers, from Alphabet to Amazon to Meta, are relentlessly competing to secure a competitive advantage in the AI sector, and this has put pressure on turbine manufacturers.
Companies like Siemens and especially GE Vernova are literally overwhelmed with orders: GE Vernova alone reported an order backlog of 18 billion dollars already at the end of the first quarter.
The Political Context
This rapid development is taking place in a political climate favorable to fossil fuels.
Trump indeed initiated a process of dismantling environmental regulations and clean energy incentives, with the declared goal of reviving the traditional fossil industry.
Many analysts have already warned that these choices are tangibly slowing down the United States’ decarbonization path.
In this context, natural gas, which the country has in large quantities thanks to domestic extraction, presents itself as the most practical and immediately available solution to satisfy the energy hunger generated by AI expansion.
The Advantages of Gas
Reid Ramdathsingh, analyst at Rystad Energy, highlighted how abundant gas reserves represent a strategic advantage for the United States in this phase of energy capacity growth.
Meanwhile, turbine prices have soared from about 800 dollars per kW to over 2,500 dollars, reflecting strong demand pressure.
Beyond this, gas is playing an increasingly important role in stabilizing the electrical grid, compensating for the variability typical of renewable sources like solar and wind.
At the same time, Energy Institute data reveal that in 2025 coal consumption in the US increased by 10%, also driven by the rise in gas prices which made returning to this energy source economically viable again. A trend that continued throughout 2026 following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
China’s Dual Strategy
China, for its part, has certainly not given up on coal and continues to invest in building new plants, which however are less expensive to build compared to modern American turbines.
At the same time, however, Beijing is vigorously pursuing its clean energy development plan. By the end of 2025, the country had installed about 1.2 terawatts of solar capacity, roughly half of the entire global fleet.
Every year China adds more renewable capacity than most other countries combined.
This dual track – fossil expansion to ensure energy security and acceleration of renewables – makes the comparison with the United States even more complex.
