There is a key fact in the game for the renewal of the board of directors of Monte dei Paschi di Siena: over 50% of the capital is in the hands of funds. It is here, net of the major Italian shareholders, that the game of April 15 will be played. And it is from here that the first signals, still partial but already indicative, of an orientation that could make a difference are coming.
In assemblies like that of Siena, not only the size of individual shares counts, but the ability of large institutional investors to move in a coordinated way, often following the indications of proxy advisors. It is precisely this mechanism that transforms even small share packages into very significant market signals.
THE THREE AMERICAN FUNDS THAT REVEAL THEIR CARDS
The first to come forward are three large American institutional investors – Calpers, Teacher Retirement System of Texas and New York City Comptroller – who have announced their vote in favor of the board of directors’ list and the CEO candidate Fabrizio Palermo. In purely quantitative terms, they weigh little, about 0.20% of the total capital, but their value is mainly qualitative.
Calpers, the pension fund for California public employees, is one of the global giants of asset management, with assets exceeding 500 billion dollars and over two million members. The Teacher Retirement System of Texas, on the other hand, represents the main pension fund of Texas and manages assets of about 225.3 billion dollars, serving more than 2.1 million members. It is the sixth largest public pension fund in the US, with a highly diversified global portfolio. Finally, the New York City Comptroller oversees the investments of the five pension funds of New York City, totaling about 319.5 billion dollars, ranking among the largest public pension systems in the United States.
Their holdings in Mps are small – about 0.1%, 0.024%, and 0.075% respectively – but precisely for this reason they are emblematic: they represent that broad group of dispersed investors who tend to align with proxy recommendations.
THE PROXY EFFECT AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LARGE ASSET MANAGERS
The real point is the chain effect. The recommendations of Iss and Glass Lewis, both in favor of the board list and Palermo’s name, together with the first indications from the American funds, could guide the major global asset managers.
Under observation are especially BlackRock, Vanguard, and Norges Bank, which together approach 10% of Monte’s capital. These are global asset management giants: BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, manages thousands of billions of dollars, while Vanguard exceeds 10 trillion and Norges – the Norwegian sovereign fund – manages assets of about 2 trillion.
BlackRock, the fund of the legendary Larry Fink, returned above 5% on the eve of the record date, further strengthening its weight in the game.
Yet the picture remains blurred. As recalled a few days ago by Startmag, Pierluigi Tortora – promoter of the alternative list with Luigi Lovaglio – claims that BlackRock, Vanguard, and Norges would be on his list’s side. A version that clashes with the weight of proxy advisor recommendations and the first emerging orientations, but which contributes to fueling uncertainty.
THE MAJOR ITALIAN SHAREHOLDERS AND THE DELFIN ISSUE
If the funds represent the key to the game, the front of Italian shareholders remains decisive to build the bases of consensus. Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone has strengthened his position by bringing his stake to 13.5%, with an estimated investment of around 500 million, consolidating the role of second largest shareholder behind Delfin, the holding company controlled by the Del Vecchio family and led by Francesco Milleri, which holds 17.5%.
And it is precisely Delfin that represents the main question mark. The holding has deposited the shares and will therefore be present at the assembly, but according to various reconstructions it could opt for abstention. A cautious choice perhaps dictated by risk assessments related to the investigation by the Milan prosecutor’s office into the alleged concerted action among shareholders.
ENPAM, ENASARCO AND THE ROLE OF THE FUNDS
Around the board list, a bloc is forming that also involves the world of pension funds. Enasarco, with a stake around 1.15%, is indicated among the board supporters. Enpam too – although it has progressively reduced its participation to about 0.3% – according to press reconstructions should vote in favor of the board list. The perimeter expands if other minor funds and investors are included, which, according to what is learned, would bring this aggregate up to about 5%.
This is support that goes beyond numerical weight, because it reflects a broader orientation of the pension fund system, traditionally attentive to stability and governance issues.
THE BANCO BPM ISSUE AND THE ABSENCE OF THE MEF
The position of Banco Bpm, holder of about 3.7% of the capital, remains uncertain. The institution has not yet made a decision and according to some press sources could oscillate between abstention and a possible vote in favor of the main list. A choice that, in such a balanced context, could prove decisive.
Also looming is the absence of the Ministry of Economy, which with about 4.6% will not participate in the assembly. A decision consistent with the government’s line of not intervening in Monte’s governance, and which effectively increases the relative weight of private investors.
THE LISTS AND THE CLASH OVER LOVAGLIO
The challenge is played between the board list, which nominates Nicola Maione as chairman and Fabrizio Palermo as CEO, and that of Plt Holding, which proposes Cesare Bisoni and the return of Luigi Lovaglio. To these is added the minority list of Assogestioni.
It is precisely around Lovaglio that one of the toughest clashes of recent weeks has focused. The former CEO, after being excluded from the board list, was also dismissed from the role of general manager. A decision that Plt Holding openly defined as “abnormal,” accusing the board of wanting to hinder the alternative list. Despite the clamor, however, the episode had a limited impact on the markets: according to reconstructions, the stock registered only marginal effects, a sign that investors look mainly at the overall balances.
A VERY OPEN GAME
On the eve of the assembly, the numbers remain in motion. The shares deposited so far represent just over 10% of the capital, but at the record date participations for over 60% should have been registered, with a final turnout expected around 70%.
The board list starts from an estimated base between 20% and 22%, with growth margins that could bring it up to 30-35, especially thanks to the contribution of international funds. And it is precisely here that the decisive game is played: the major global investors, who hold over half of the capital, could align in a compact way, turning the proxy advisors’ indications into a concrete result.
Yet, nothing is written yet. In Siena, a last-minute assembly is looming
