While Ukrainian drones were flying over St. Petersburg on the opening morning of the International Economic Forum (Spief), striking the city port’s oil terminal and a naval base on an island off the coast, the metropolis on the Neva tried to maintain the atmosphere of solemnity and representation that has characterized the most anticipated event on the Russian economic calendar for years.
Local authorities sent alert messages to residents and forum guests, warning them of danger and possible disruptions to mobile connectivity, in stark contrast to the lights and luxury of the city’s hotels, which have been nearly fully booked for weeks.
THE AMERICAN RETURN AND THE GERMAN-RUSSIAN DIALOGUE
The most discussed novelty of this edition is certainly the return of an American delegation after ten years of absence, a signal awaited by Moscow as a possible opening of a new chapter in relations with Washington. But what has sparked the most heated controversies, at least in Germany, is another fact: for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, German and Russian businessmen are meeting around a table at an official economic meeting, with the explicit question of how companies from the two countries can interact in the current scenario. An initiative that the German government views with obvious annoyance, as it is a rapprochement of a business nature, not institutional or political.
Kirill Dmitriev, special envoy of President Vladimir Putin for international economic cooperation, did not fail to emphasize the symbolic value of the moment: “Russia eagerly awaits the large delegation of German companies at the International Economic Forum,” he told the Berliner Morgenpost, adding that “German economic leaders are showing the right path to the politicians and officials of their country.”
Matthias Schepp, chairman of the board of the Deutsch-Russische Auslandshandelskammer (Ahk), the German-Russian foreign chamber of commerce, takes a long-term view and offers a long-range interpretation: “The West should not leave Russia, its large market and its raw materials to others in the long term,” he said, recalling how only Chinese companies founded 1,400 new enterprises in Russia in the first quarter of this year. In short, St. Petersburg is worth a mass, even if it is a requiem.
THE GERMAN COMPANIES THAT STAY
The numbers indeed tell a business story that goes beyond political declarations. Until February 2022, Germany was Russia’s main European trading partner, with trade reaching almost 60 billion euros in 2021. Western sanctions reduced this volume to less than ten billion last year, but about 1,600 German companies are still operating on Russian territory, according to data provided by the Ahk itself.
Among these are the retail group Metro, the Globus store chain, the construction machinery manufacturer Liebherr, and the well-known chocolate producer Ritter Sport, which – to ease its conscience – declared that it donates the profits generated in Russia to humanitarian organizations.
A survey conducted by the Ahk on 750 of its members (265 responses received) reveals that 75% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of their activities in Russia, despite the million-dollar losses caused by the effect of sanctions. Two-thirds believe that these measures are seriously or very seriously damaging the Russian economy, yet one-third also claim that the sanctions are penalizing Germany more than Russia itself. Furthermore, 39% of respondents state that they are practically unaffected by the restrictions.
THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND THE WAR THAT NEVER ENDS
This year Vladimir Putin faces a domestic economic situation before the international audience that is far from bright: high inflation erodes the population’s purchasing power, while high interest rates curb investments. Economic experts call for closer cooperation between the Russian central bank and the government to bring the economy back onto a path of sustainable growth. Meanwhile, the war shows no signs of stopping: over the weekend, a new Russian attack caused at least ten civilian casualties and unleashed a night of terror in Kyiv, while Ukraine continues to strike Russian oil infrastructure almost daily, with repercussions also on the availability of aviation fuel in the country. The blow dealt to St. Petersburg is a sign that Kyiv is now able to respond blow for blow with strong media and psychological impact.
THE AFD CASE AND THE GAS ISSUE
But the business front is not the only one causing controversy in Germany. The participation at the forum of a delegation from the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), composed among others of Bundestag deputy group deputy Markus Frohnmaier, deputy Steffen Kotré, Saxony regional president Jörg Urban, and MEP Petr Bystron, has fueled further tensions in the internal political debate.
Even some guests from the cultural world announced their presence in St. Petersburg, including conductor Justus Frantz, Berlin publisher Holger Friedrich, and director Hubert Seipel. They will participate in an event dedicated to culture as a tool for dialogue in times of crisis. In the background remains the question that weighs most heavily on German public opinion: should Germany resume buying Russian gas and oil? Among the companies surveyed by the Ahk, the answer is clear: 65% respond affirmatively, hoping it will happen as soon as possible, while 31% are in favor, but only once the war is over.
