The war by the United States and Israel on Iran, which began almost two months ago, has drastically reduced maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf. But it has also accelerated Turkey’s efforts to develop a logistics corridor that could – ideally, at least – represent an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
ALTERNATIVES TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
The Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway in the world for the trade of fossil fuels: under normal conditions, about one fifth of all gas and oil transported by sea passes through it every day. It is especially crucial for hydrocarbon producers in the Persian Gulf – such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia – because it connects the latter to the Gulf of Oman, ensuring access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.
Currently, there are already alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, such as the East-West pipeline of Saudi Arabia and the Fujairah pipeline in the United Arab Emirates, but they cannot fully replace it.
TURKEY’S “MIDDLE CORRIDOR”
The Turkish project is called the Middle Corridor: it will directly connect Baku (in Azerbaijan, on the Caspian Sea) with Mersin (in Turkey, on the Mediterranean Sea), without passing through Georgia. However, for this to be possible, a new route – by road and rail – passing through Armenia must be established, whose border has been closed for over thirty years.
The “political name,” in a sense, of this route is Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or Tripp: the reference to the U.S. president serves to give the infrastructure diplomatic value, given the poor relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two countries recently fought a war over the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh region and signed a peace agreement last August, also thanks to Trump’s mediation.
ERDOGAN’S WORDS
To promote the Middle Corridor, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that “Turkey stands out as an oasis of stability and a safe haven,” alluding to instability in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and with Russia.
“Discussions have been initiated on safer alternatives for energy transmission lines,” Erdogan added: Azerbaijan is a major hydrocarbon producer. “We firmly believe that this global crisis will open new doors for our country.”
The connection with Armenia could also revitalize the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project, an underwater pipeline for transporting natural gas extracted in Turkmenistan to Europe through Turkey.
THE NUMBERS
In theory, the Middle Corridor should drastically reduce the travel time of goods between Asia and Europe: the shortest sea route takes approximately forty days, while the Turkish option would require twelve to fifteen days. Trade between Asia and Europe is worth around 3 trillion dollars annually and is conducted 90 percent by sea, wrote the Financial Times.
If the route with Armenia is completed, the volume of goods transported along the Middle Corridor could grow from 5 to 20 million tons per year. However, there are drawbacks: to reach Azerbaijan, goods coming from Asia will have to cross the Caspian Sea by ferry, an option that slows the journey; customs procedures between the involved countries will need to be simplified; the route between Azerbaijan and Armenia also passes very close to Iranian territory, so cargo is exposed to the risk of attacks.
COUNTRIES HARMED BY THE “MIDDLE CORRIDOR”
The Middle Corridor is harmful to Iran’s interests, as it could contribute to reducing the centrality of the Strait of Hormuz for international trade, and with it Tehran’s geopolitical weight. The Turkish initiative also harms Russia’s projection in the Caucasus region: not coincidentally, President Vladimir Putin has already said that Moscow could cut gas supplies to Armenia if it continues to reorient its trade flows towards Europe.
For the moment, at least, the Turkish Middle Corridor cannot compete with the times and volumes of the Northern Corridor, a rail trade route connecting China to Europe through Russian territory: not only does it guarantee shorter transport times compared to the Middle Corridor, but it already handles a volume of goods of about 40 million tons per year.
