Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), one of the most valuable private companies in the world, has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This highlights how innovation and value creation are increasingly occurring outside public markets. The company’s implied valuation is around $1.25 trillion following the acquisition of xAI, while media reports have referenced potential IPO valuation ranges between approximately $1.75 and $2 trillion. If realized, this would suggest an IPO valuation premium of about 40%-60% compared to recent transaction valuations. Reuters reported that SpaceX is expected to list on Nasdaq starting June 12, 2026. If completed at these levels, the IPO could become the largest in U.S. and global market history.
Given its scale, we believe SpaceX could attract a broad investor base if listed. Nasdaq has also approved methodological changes, effective from May 2026, introducing a fast-entry mechanism that could allow eligible large-cap IPOs to be considered for index inclusion after about 15 days of trading, subject to applicable rules and governance. This could lead to automatic participation by mutual funds and ETFs that track these benchmarks.
Although SpaceX is a prominent example, it fits into a broader landscape of large, fast-growing private companies now approaching public markets.
IPO MARKETS REOPEN THANKS TO IMPROVED PRIVATE MARKET LIQUIDITY
The 2026 IPO market is showing early signs of recovery, supported by a pipeline of large, high-growth companies in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) and space sectors, including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Although the first quarter of 2026 was characterized by a slower and more volatile start, sector movements continue to indicate a significant backlog of private companies that may seek public listings as market conditions stabilize.
This favorable IPO environment is reflected in private markets. The first quarter of 2026 recorded continued strength, particularly in the upper tier of Venture Capital (VC), where funding remained concentrated on a limited number of established Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies. More generally, signs of improving liquidity are observed, although progress remains uneven across sectors and companies.
In early stages, Carta data indicates record valuations, with increasing round sizes, while dilution in Seed and Series A rounds has remained broadly in line with historical averages (around 19% to 20%). This suggests that venture capital investors continue to commit larger amounts of capital to opportunities they trust most, despite more selective investment activity.
Looking ahead, liquidity remains a key variable, with a significant amount of value still locked in private companies. We believe that improved exit conditions would represent a significant positive factor for the asset class over the next 12-24 months.
COMPANIES STAY PRIVATE LONGER
SpaceX, xAI, and OpenAI illustrate a broader shift, with much of today’s value creation occurring before companies reach public markets. Active investors from the late ’90s and early 2000s will recall that many of today’s largest companies, including Apple, Cisco, Adobe, and Amazon, went public at a relatively early stage of their development. The situation has changed significantly.
In 1999, an average company spent about four years in private markets before listing, typically with a market capitalization of nearly $500 million. Between 2020 and 2025, an average company remained private for more than 12 years, going public with an average market capitalization of about $1.8 billion. Regulatory changes in the early 2000s allowed companies to raise capital from a broader investor base, enabling them to finance growth and expansion while staying private longer.
As a result, much of today’s opportunities remain outside public markets. About 77% of U.S. companies with revenues over $100 million are privately owned, and the number of private companies valued over $1 billion has grown from just one in 2010 to over 1,300 in 2025. As innovation and value creation increasingly concentrate in private markets, we believe investors without exposure to these companies risk missing the next wave of transformative growth.
CAPTURING VALUE BEFORE THE IPO
Traditional VC typically focuses on early-stage ventures with long-term investment horizons. In contrast, we have strong conviction in late-stage companies already backed by major global VC firms. These companies generally have established governance, proven business models, and significant revenues, and are typically two to five years away from a potential liquidity event through an IPO or acquisition. This segment differs substantially from the 10-15 year horizon of traditional VC. Companies tend to be more mature, with real products, a solid customer base, and clear growth paths.
Our research, based on a study of nearly 800 U.S. venture-backed companies that completed an IPO over a 15-year period, has shown that investing in the last private funding round and holding the position until six months after listing generated average returns of about 249%. In comparison, investors entering at the IPO achieved average returns of about 16% over the same period, while those buying on the first day of trading recorded negative average returns. In our view, these results support the idea that a significant portion of value creation now occurs while companies remain private.
