(Die Welt, Daniel Zwick, May 7, 2026)
The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) has revised down its export growth forecasts for 2026, lowering them from 0.5% to zero due to the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which are severely impacting the German economy with rising energy costs, transport disruptions, and increased dependence on hydrocarbon imports from the Gulf.
The crisis is underestimated in its real dimensions and will further reduce the contribution of foreign trade to German GDP growth, already expected to be negative, while German companies abroad report a decline in expectations especially in Asian countries close to the conflict, with the positive exception of China, less dependent on Gulf oil.
The situation accelerates the deindustrialization process in Germany, with 600,000 industrial jobs lost since 2019, only offset by expansion abroad, and makes an internal economic rebound more difficult, worsened by poor competitiveness conditions in the country.
Negative outlook for German exports
“The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) lowers its forecast for export growth this year from 1% to zero. The crisis is underestimated rather than overestimated.”
Impact of the Hormuz blockade
“The conflict hits the German economy harder than expected. The crisis leads to increases in fossil fuel prices, transport disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz but also on trade routes between Asia and Europe.”
Positive exception in China
“In China there is currently a special situation for German companies. Almost half of German companies rate the prospects for their business there as above average positive.”
Ongoing deindustrialization
“Since 2019 about 600,000 industrial jobs have been lost. German companies abroad employ 8.6 million workers, a number that has grown by about 600,000 since the Corona pandemic.”
No rebound in sight
“The outlook for a recovery is currently bleak.”
(Excerpt from the newsletter by Giuseppe Liturri)
