Lufthansa reduces losses, but the real bill is yet to come. And it risks being steep. Between geopolitical crises, high fuel costs, and cuts already underway, the German group is walking a fine line: improving numbers in the short term, but more uncertain prospects and the risk of a profit cut.
ACCOUNTS IMPROVE, BUT THE CONTEXT COMPLICATES
The first quarter of 2026 delivers a clear recovery set of accounts for Lufthansa. Revenues rise by 8% to 8.7 billion euros, while the operating loss (adjusted EBIT) decreases to 612 million from 722 million in the same period of 2025. The improvement is even more evident on the net result, which fell to -665 million compared to -885 million the previous year.
The improvement, about 110 million on the operating result, reflects demand that remains surprisingly robust despite the complex global scenario. Traffic grows, albeit moderately (+1%), while the load factor exceeds 82%, up by more than 3 percentage points. The group also benefits from a shift in flows: less Middle East, more European hubs.
“We are achieving what we set out to do and keeping our promises,” claimed CEO Carsten Spohr, emphasizing how demand remains “resilient even in times of crisis.”
The accounts are also supported by activities less exposed to passenger traffic: cargo and maintenance. Lufthansa Cargo recorded an EBIT of 83 million euros, up from 62 million the previous year, while Lufthansa Technik remained stable at 158 million, confirming itself as a pillar of the group’s profitability.
THE BURDEN OF FUEL (1.7 BILLION MORE)
While the quarter shows encouraging signs, the real issue lies in costs, particularly energy costs. Lufthansa highlights a figure that weighs like a burden: +1.7 billion euros in additional fuel costs in 2026.
The overall bill will rise to about 8.9 billion euros, of which 8.7 billion for fossil fuel and about 200 million for sustainable fuels. An increase almost entirely attributable to the escalation of the Iranian crisis and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which are squeezing the global oil supply.
The group is hedged for about 80% of its needs thanks to hedging operations, i.e., contracts that fix the fuel price in advance. But the remaining 20% remains exposed to market volatility. And this is where the greatest risk lies, also because – the company warns – a reduction in fuel availability in the second half of the year cannot be excluded.
“The current closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing a shortage of kerosene supplies and thus a significant increase in prices,” explains Lufthansa, openly speaking of a “significant burden” on the cost structure.
GUIDANCE CONFIRMED, BUT WITH MORE SHADOWS
Despite everything, Lufthansa has decided to confirm guidance for 2026, forecasting an operating result significantly higher than the approximately 1.96 billion of 2025. But it is a confirmation far from reassuring.
The group itself admits that the risk-opportunity profile “has shifted towards risks.” And above all, as highlighted also by Bloomberg, annual profits will likely be lower than initial expectations.
This was clarified by the group’s CFO Till Streichert: “Our annual profit will probably be lower than initially expected.” However, he added, “based on current booking trends we expect to largely offset the higher fuel costs progressively, especially in the second half of the year.”
IRAN, GEOPOLITICS AND FUEL: THE REAL RISK FACTOR
The heart of the problem is geopolitical. The war in the Middle East and tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel are reshaping routes, squeezing energy supply, and driving jet fuel prices sky-high.
For Lufthansa, the conflict represents “a growing risk” to financial results. Spohr speaks bluntly of “a huge challenge for the world, for global air transport, and for our company.”
Paradoxically, the crisis also generates short-term positive effects: more traffic at European hubs and greater demand on some routes. But it is a fragile balance.
COUNTERMEASURES: PRICES, CUTS AND DISCIPLINE
To absorb the fuel impact, Lufthansa has already outlined a multi-front strategy. The goal is to offset higher costs through revenue increases, network optimization, and expense cuts. In this framework, the group is scrutinizing all available levers: “The current situation requires rigorously examining all available levers to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and mitigate risks,” explained Streichert.
In practice, this means more expensive tickets, network revision, and acceleration of restructuring measures. Not only that: the group has already begun reducing capacity.
Lufthansa has indeed cut about 20,000 flights in the summer season, while globally airlines are reducing millions of available seats. The German carrier, along with other operators, has canceled thousands of departures and downsized supply to contain fuel consumption.
The slimming cure does not only concern flights. Lufthansa has already launched a long-term cost reduction plan that also involves personnel. The group has announced the cut of about 4,000 administrative jobs by 2030, mainly concentrated in Germany, as part of a broader efficiency and digitalization program. According to estimates, the intervention could affect up to 20% of non-operational functions, a sign that cost pressure is no longer just cyclical but persistent.
That’s not all. The group has also started structural interventions: reducing administrative costs, fleet rationalization, closing less efficient activities, and shifting capacity to more competitive internal airlines.
A path already undertaken by many global carriers, signaling that the sector is preparing for a tougher phase.
CUTS ALREADY UNDERWAY (FLIGHTS AND WORKFORCE)
The numbers confirm that the cure has already started and concerns the entire sector. Lufthansa has reduced flights and capacity, contributing to a global supply drop of about 2 million seats in just one month, along with other major carriers.
Specifically, the German group has canceled thousands of departures, while other companies are adopting similar strategies, including frequency reductions and use of more efficient aircraft to contain consumption.
WHY THE STOCK RISES ON THE MARKET
Despite the scenario full of uncertainties, the market has rewarded Lufthansa. The stock rose more than 6% in Frankfurt after the quarterly results.
The reasons are several. First, the improvement in results exceeded expectations. Secondly, the confirmation of guidance – albeit cautious – was interpreted as a sign of confidence in a context where other competitors have revised prospects downward.
Finally, the market is betting on the group’s ability to pass higher costs onto prices and benefit from the shift of traffic flows towards Europe.
ITA AIRWAYS AND TAP: THE STRATEGIC FOCUS REMAINS
On the strategic front, the group does not lose sight of the acquisition dossier. On Ita Airways, Spohr recalled that the window for a possible stake increase will open in June, but with no immediate news.
Meanwhile, the contribution of the Italian airline is improving: the operating result grew by 70 million, although penalized by currency effects.
On the Tap Air Portugal front, the Portuguese flag carrier and key hub for connections with South America, Lufthansa confirms its stance: “Our interest has not changed,” said Spohr, emphasizing the strategic importance of the region for the group.
Lufthansa improves, but the real test will come in the coming months.
