The mid-June agreement between the United States and Iran did not bring peace to the Persian Gulf: the two countries have resumed attacking each other and the free passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz – the most important waterway in the world for the trade of fossil fuels, and more – has been blocked again.
IRAN STRIKES TWO TANKERS, TRUMP ANNOUNCES A TOLL IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
In recent hours Tehran struck two tankers registered in the United Arab Emirates, while American President Donald Trump announced the resumption of the blockade of traffic to and from Iranian ports. Not only that: he also said that the United States will become the “guardians” of the Strait of Hormuz – that is, the guarantors of freedom and security of navigation – and that for this they must be reimbursed with a 20 percent toll on all cargo passing through.
COMMENTARY BY PROF. DUCI
“A tanker carrying two million barrels of oil, in the first days of the Hormuz blockade by the Iranians, paid one dollar per barrel (so about 2 million). But its cargo is worth about 80 dollars per barrel today, so about 160 million dollars. 20% is 32 million,” explained Gian Enzo Duci, professor at the University of Genoa.
THE DETACHMENT FROM THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
To date, crossing the Strait of Hormuz is almost indispensable for hydrocarbon producers in the Persian Gulf, as it connects the latter with the Gulf of Oman, guaranteeing access to the Indian Ocean and thus to international markets. However, the commercial and geopolitical importance of this waterway is destined to decrease: Iranian attacks have convinced countries in the region to invest in developing alternatives, despite the high costs, in order to avoid being exposed to future crises.
For example, the United Arab Emirates – the country of registration of the two tankers attacked by Iran in recent hours – have a plan for emancipation from the Strait of Hormuz based on the expansion of the ports of Dibba, Fujairah, and Khawr Fakkan: they are located on the eastern part of the country, facing the Gulf of Oman, thus outside the Strait of Hormuz. Near Fujairah, a new port will also be built, as reported by the Financial Times.
A NEW PORT FOR DUBAI, BUT TO THE EAST
The Emirati logistics company DP World, based in Dubai, intends to build a new port and container terminal on the country’s eastern coast: in this way Dubai would reduce its dependence on Jebel Ali – one of the largest and most important logistics hubs in the world – and consequently on the Strait of Hormuz.
It will not be easy, however, because the major Emirati cities – such as Abu Dhabi and indeed Dubai – are located to the west: receiving imports at the eastern ports and then distributing them overland westward is a possible but very costly option and requires, among other things, strengthening road and rail networks.
Since the start of the war between the United States and Iran on February 28, the United Arab Emirates have been the country most targeted by Iran with drones and missiles, nearly three thousand. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz then caused activities at the Jebel Ali port to collapse by 90-95 percent. Just last year, this infrastructure handled over fifteen million containers and has allowed Dubai over time to position itself as an international logistics and re-export hub, particularly between China and Africa. The new port in the east was not conceived as a replacement for Jebel Ali, but it is clear that the relevance of the latter could significantly decline.
A PROJECT WORTH “HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS”
We do not know much about this port project on the Gulf of Oman, except that – as reported by the Financial Times – DP World is ready to invest “hundreds of millions of dollars” and that the works could be completed within a year and a half.
