There is a line running through Germany that cannot be seen on maps: it is the line of declining net investments, which have fallen below zero for the first time since reunification. The data examined by the Handelsblatt indicate something that is now clearly perceived in Berlin: this is no longer a temporary phase, but a reality becoming structural. In several regions, productive capital is shrinking, while growth remains almost stagnant – just a few decimals above zero – and unemployment is starting to rise again.
DECLINE OF PRODUCTIVE CAPITAL
The key point is an indicator little known to the general public but decisive, explains the economic daily: the net investment rate. Essentially, it measures how much companies invest in durable goods – machinery, factories, infrastructure – net of the depreciation of these same assets. If the balance is negative, it means the economic system is slowly “wearing out.”
And that is exactly what is happening. In the 1990s, also thanks to the boost from reunification, the average rate was 7.3%. In the following two decades, it remained around 3%. In 2025, it dropped to -0.2%. This is not just a symbolic threshold: it means that the overall productive capital is decreasing.
The phenomenon does not concern just a few isolated cases. The Handelsblatt exclusively reports data requested by Linke MP Cem Ince and analyzed by his working group, which show that already in 2024 and 2025 depreciation continuously exceeded new investments. For the first time since reunification, the fixed assets of the national economy have therefore decreased. “Infrastructure is falling into ruin and deindustrialization puts entire regions at risk,” said Ince, speaking of an economic and ecological transformation phase that makes this weakness even more critical.
THE ATLAS OF LOSS
The geography of the country highlights widespread negative figures, both east and west, but also some exceptions. Data are available for each Land up to 2023. Thuringia, the green heart of Germany, records the worst figure, with a net investment rate of -3.8% in 2023. Following are Saxony-Anhalt and Bremen, just below -3%. Negative values also appear in Saarland, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, and Rhineland-Palatinate.
In some areas, the problem has been rooted for years. Saarland, for example, has had a negative balance since the 2000s, linked to the decline of its traditional industry, particularly steel and heavy manufacturing. Later, Saxony-Anhalt joined this trend. In other Länder, the shift to negative is recent but still significant.
Some concrete examples on the ground help make this trend more understandable. In Saarland, between Völklingen and Dillingen, the steel industry is slowing down plant modernization programs, also due to uncertainty about energy costs. In the Ruhr area, in North Rhine-Westphalia, several automotive suppliers report a decline in orders compared to previous years and prefer to postpone new investments. Further east, in Saxony-Anhalt, in the Bitterfeld-Wolfen area, some chemical hubs have scaled back expansion projects that until recently appeared consolidated.
THE PRIVATE SECTOR SLOWS DOWN MOSTLY
Economists say there is no single explanation. Industrial regions like North Rhine-Westphalia suffer from reduced production capacities. Others, with a more fragile industrial base, especially in the east of the country, show different but equally serious structural limits.
However, there are also opposite signals. Berlin records a positive rate of 3.9%, Bavaria stands at 3%, and Brandenburg at 2.4%. In the capital and neighboring Brandenburg, construction sites related to logistics and clean technologies are increasing, while in Bavaria, around Ingolstadt, investments continue to flow, albeit more cautiously. This indicates that attracting investments is still possible, but increasingly selective, writes the Handelsblatt.
The causes are varied and do not concern only the state. Certainly, infrastructural deficiencies weigh in, both in the east and in some marginalized areas of the west. But the main brake is the private sector, which invests less also due to bureaucracy, tax pressure, and difficulty finding qualified personnel. Problems that have long afflicted the entire German industry but emerge more strongly precisely in the eastern regions, where until recently a recovery was hypothesized thanks to the expansion of renewable energies.
From Berlin, the picture appears clear: the decline in net investments is widespread, even in areas that remain in positive territory. And in recent years, the trend has accelerated, raising increasingly troubling questions about the sustainability of the German economic model.
