The offer starts from Milan, but the battle is now fought entirely in Germany. In Frankfurt, where the glass towers of the banks still dominate the city skyline on the Main, Commerzbank has decided to respond to Unicredit’s advance by playing the autonomy card: an aggressive plan, higher profitability, reduced costs and another cut in staff by 2030.
The German bank is thus trying to convince investors, employees and the federal government that it can stand on its own feet without falling under Italian control. The group led by Bettina Orlopp wants to bring the return on equity to 21% by the end of the decade, compared to 8.7% recorded in 2024, and meanwhile is factoring in another 3,000 fewer full-time jobs. Part of the cuts, they explain in Frankfurt, will be linked to the increasing use of artificial intelligence in administrative activities and internal services.
THE RESPONSE FROM FRANKFURT
The new strategy – notes the Handelsblatt – is the clearest signal sent so far to Unicredit, which entered Commerzbank’s capital in 2024 and has now reached close to 30%. For months, in the halls of German finance, the dossier has been followed almost as a national issue. Also because the federal government still holds about 13% of the bank born from the public bailout during the financial crisis and continues to openly oppose a sale.
Last Tuesday the Italian group formally launched its public takeover bid, putting on the table 0.485 Unicredit shares for each Commerzbank share. At current prices, however, the operation convinces few German investors, writes the economic daily: hence the Frankfurt management’s choice to raise the level of the clash, presenting quarterly accounts better than expected and more aggressive targets compared to the plans announced only a few months ago.
IN THE FIRST QUARTER NET PROFIT +9% TO 913 MILLION
In the first quarter net profit increased by 9%, reaching 913 million euros, while the return on equity reached 12.7%. The bank also revised upwards its annual forecasts and now aims for at least 3.4 billion euros of profit in 2026. “Our strategy is delivering results faster than expected,” said Orlopp, who rose to the top of the bank last October, a few weeks after Unicredit entered the capital, also tasked with stopping the offensive from Milan.
THE CLASH WITH ORCEL
Behind the numbers, however, a clash is emerging that is becoming increasingly political and personal rather than financial. Commerzbank has openly accused Unicredit’s CEO, Andrea Orcel, of presenting a “vague” project with “considerable implementation risks.” In a detailed presentation to investors, the German bank also claims that the Italian group provided “a distorted picture” of the profitability and technological capabilities of the Frankfurt institution.
Orcel replies by accusing the German management of having closed the doors to dialogue after two meetings held between late March and early April. The Italian banker continues to maintain that he does not want to take control of the bank immediately, but still aims to exceed the 30% threshold, beyond which a full offer would normally be triggered.
Exceeding that limit would give him wider margins to strengthen the stake later, underlines the Handelsblatt, which then summarizes the Italian proposal: Unicredit’s plan foresees a deep restructuring of Commerzbank, including a downsizing of the international presence and about 7,000 redundancies in Germany. Also for this reason, in Frankfurt, management and unions are trying to consolidate the internal front around the idea of a still independent bank.
THE UNION COMPROMISE
Even the Commerzbank plan, however, has a significant social cost. To the 3,900 cuts already announced with the strategy presented at the beginning of 2025, another 3,000 are now added. To be malicious, these are effectively the 7,000 indicated by Unicredit. The bank argues, however, that the total number of employees should remain stable, around 36,700 units, thanks to new hires especially at foreign offices and digital centers.
At the Frankfurt headquarters, the use of artificial intelligence is now described as “inevitable.” The chairman of the works council, Sascha Uebel, called any staff reduction “simply disgusting,” but explained that he had to and wanted to swallow the poisoned pill because workers’ representatives preferred to negotiate to accompany the transformation rather than oppose it without room for maneuver.
Tactical acquiescence? Defensive realism? The union compromise supports the consolidation of the institute’s Maginot line, but it is not without counter-guarantees. According to the agreements reached with management, until the end of 2030 dismissals for business reasons should be excluded thanks to early retirements and agreed social measures.
The agreement, however, only applies if Commerzbank remains autonomous. “With the acquisition of control by Unicredit we will stop any constructive cooperation,” warned Uebel. This is the climate felt today between Frankfurt and Berlin.
