Ryanair accelerates on revenues and profits, but fuel uncertainty weighs.
The Irish low-cost airline closed the 2025-2026 fiscal year with strong growth results, driven by increased revenues and especially profits. However, for the new fiscal year, the group led by Michael O’Leary warns that uncertainties related to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, oil price volatility, and fuel supply risks remain. The Irish carrier also signals weakness in summer fares, while stating it is “increasingly confident” about the stability of jet fuel supplies after suppliers adapted to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
As Bloomberg recalls, the war in the Middle East has driven up fuel costs, putting the profits of many airlines under pressure this quarter. Traditional European airlines such as IAG SA, owner of British Airways, and Deutsche Lufthansa reported fuel cost increases of about 2 billion euros and 1.7 billion euros respectively.
And the Dublin-based low-cost carrier prefers not to provide guidance: “With zero visibility for the second half and significant volatility in fuel prices and potential supply, it is too early to provide meaningful earnings guidance for fiscal 2027 at this time.”
Currently, Ryanair shares are sharply down on the Dublin Stock Exchange, with a decline of over 3%.
All the details.
RECORD PROFITS AND REVENUE GROWTH FOR RYANAIR
On Monday, Ryanair reported a net profit of 2.26 billion euros (2.63 billion dollars) for the fiscal year, compared to a forecast of 2.20 billion euros in an internal analyst survey and up from 1.61 billion euros the previous year.
The group’s revenue increased by 11% to 15.54 billion. Scheduled revenues grew 14% to 10.56 billion, thanks to a 4% traffic increase with fares up 10% (recovering from the 7% fare decline the previous year). Ancillary revenues rose 6% to 4.99 billion euros (24 euros per passenger).
Traffic grew 4%, reaching 208.4 million passengers, despite delays in the delivery of 29 B-8200 aircraft.
FUEL UNCERTAINTIES LINKED TO POLITICAL INSTABILITY
In presenting the outlook for the 2026-2027 fiscal year, Ryanair warned that “the final results for fiscal 2027 remain heavily exposed to adverse external developments, including escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine” and “risks of fuel supply shortages.”
The company explained it has hedged about 80% of its jet fuel needs for the year at a price of 67 dollars per barrel, lower than the previous year, while the remaining 20% remains exposed to the risk of high oil prices. Ryanair also cited potential strikes and air traffic management issues in Europe among the uncertainties.
“We hope to provide shareholders with a clearer picture of fuel prices and costs in the first half during the first quarter results presentation, scheduled for the end of July,” the statement reads.
WHAT TO EXPECT FOR SUMMER FARES
At the same time, Ryanair highlighted a weakening of summer fares compared to previous expectations. Although it initially expected a slight increase in summer fares, the company now anticipates substantial stability, with the final outcome depending on last-minute bookings during peak periods, reports Cnbc.
Ryanair was forced to lower prices to attract customers at the start of summer, but according to Citi analysts, prices in the second quarter will be similar to last year’s. “The company indicates that demand for summer 2026 travel is ‘robust,’ but bookings are closer than usual and prices have dropped in recent weeks due to economic uncertainty linked to fuel prices, inflation, and fears of fuel shortages,” the analysts say.
PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECASTS
Despite the uncertain outlook, Ryanair expects passenger traffic to grow by 4% in the 2026-2027 fiscal year, with 216 million people carried.
RYANAIR READY FOR “AN APOCALYPTIC SITUATION”
Afterward, Ryanair says it is prepared for an “apocalyptic situation” on the fuel front, CFO Neil Sorahan told Cnbc on Monday, while clarifying that he does not consider such a scenario likely.
Sorahan explained that the company is now “increasingly confident” that there will be no interruptions in aircraft fuel supplies even after summer, thanks to increased refinery production and the search for alternatives to Gulf oil. Sorahan added that Europe’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz is decreasing, with suppliers turning to oil from the United States, Venezuela, and Brazil.
“I believe we will see some of the weaker airlines, which were already struggling before the war, fail definitively during the winter,” said the low-cost carrier’s CFO, in a scenario similar to what happened with Spirit Airlines in the United States, Cnbc recalls. Michael O’Leary also told Cnbc last month that if oil remains steadily at 150 dollars per barrel during summer, several European airlines could face bankruptcy.
Finally, a message of confidence and optimism for travelers: Sorahan assured that Ryanair “does not anticipate cancellations” and will continue to operate a full schedule both during summer and the winter season.
