It is a space race to the Moon between Washington and Beijing.
After orbiting around our satellite, the four astronauts of NASA’s Artemis II mission have returned to Earth.
NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Christina Koch, and Victor Glover, along with Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen, took off last April 1st for a 1 million km, 10-day journey, marking a step forward toward the U.S. space agency’s plans to establish a long-term presence on the lunar surface, kicking off the first crewed mission around the Earth’s satellite in over 50 years.
And last night Artemis II successfully returned to Earth: the splashdown of the spacecraft with the four astronauts on board occurred without issues at 5:07 PM local time (2:07 AM in Italy), about 80 miles off the California coast.
While NASA’s Artemis mission, which broke every record, strengthens the United States’ path back to the Moon, China’s project to land astronauts on the satellite by 2030 is gaining increasing geopolitical significance, putting pressure on China to meet or beat its schedule, reports Reuters.
“Beijing is pursuing its space program with formidable determination,” wrote the New York Times earlier this month.
The country that arrives first could gain an advantage in choosing where to build future lunar infrastructure, in setting technical standards, and in shaping the next phase of space exploration.
Behind the next lunar landing, the technological challenge is intertwined with the geopolitical one.
All the details.
PROGRESS OF NASA’S ARTEMIS PROGRAM
This week, four U.S. astronauts from the Artemis II mission flew over the dark side of the Moon. The crew received a congratulatory call from U.S. President Donald Trump. “Humans have never seen anything like what you are doing,” he told them. “It’s truly special.”
President Trump himself assured that NASA will establish a permanent human presence on the Moon and continue toward Mars. The second mission of the Artemis program will serve as a crucial springboard for a crewed lunar landing, currently planned for 2028. An ambitious goal to beat China, which in recent years has accelerated its space program, sending robots and rovers to the lunar surface and declaring the goal of sending astronauts by 2030.
BEIJING’S PLAN TO REACH THE MOON BY 2030
China’s lunar program aims to bring astronauts to the Moon by 2030 through the development of a completely new mission architecture. Beijing is working on the heavy-lift Long March 10 rocket, the Mengzhou spacecraft, and the Lanyue lunar lander, all elements intended to support the first crewed mission to the satellite, notes Reuters.
The Mengzhou spacecraft is designed to carry up to seven astronauts, although Beijing has not yet announced the final crew for the 2030 mission.
WHO WILL ARRIVE FIRST?
Thus, the United States wants to return to the Moon by 2028, two years ahead of China’s target, but even NASA admits it might not win.
“They could arrive early,” NASA administrator Jared Isaacman admitted at the end of March. “And recent history suggests we might be late.”
According to the NYT, “Beijing is pursuing its lunar ambitions with singular and formidable determination. Its program has several advantages over American rivals.”
Experts argue that China’s advantage lies in its centralized control, allowing it to plan and fund projects for decades. In recent years, China has gained significant experience through robotic lunar missions, becoming the first country to return samples from both the near and far sides of the Moon. This summer, the seventh Chinese robotic mission, Chang’e 7, will explore the lunar South Pole. Additionally, the crewed space program has consolidated expertise in managing space stations and emergency operations in orbit.
TECHNICAL CHALLENGES FOR THE CHINESE LUNAR RACE
However, to achieve a crewed lunar landing by the end of the decade, a major obstacle for Beijing will be to demonstrate, within the next four years, that a completely new lunar mission architecture—that is, all the hardware under development for the 2030 mission, from heavy-lift rockets to spacesuits—can operate reliably from the first use, continues Reuters.
ANALYSTS’ COMMENTARY
As reported by CBC, Dean Cheng, senior researcher at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and longtime expert on China’s space program, says this new race is not a sprint like Apollo, but a marathon. This time, the goal is not just to visit the Moon, but to stay there.
“One of the most surprising things about China’s space program is that they don’t make too many predictions,” Cheng explained. “But the ones they do make, they absolutely deliver on.” That’s why, according to him, China’s 2030 goal carries significant weight.
“There is no bigger prize for China today than landing humans on the Moon; this is the essential next step for China on the road to space supremacy,” observed Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), notes Reuters.
Swope also stated that it appears “very plausible” that China will meet its 2030 deadline.
“China has a history of setting deadlines for space activities and strictly adhering to those deadlines; there are no public signs of missteps or setbacks in Beijing’s plans for a crewed lunar landing,” he concluded.
