Over the past twenty years, Middle Eastern airlines – led by Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad – have rewritten the rules of intercontinental air travel, transforming Dubai and Doha into dazzling hubs connecting Europe, Africa, and Asia at competitive prices and with brand-new aircraft.
Then, almost overnight, the conflict in Iran arrived: airspace closures, flight cancellations, disoriented passengers.
Suddenly, notes Bloomberg in an in-depth report, major Western airlines found themselves facing an opportunity that seemed impossible just weeks before.
A successful model that seemed unbeatable
Until a few months ago, writes the City newspaper, the story was clear: the three Gulf giants leveraged a perfect geographic position, state-of-the-art aircraft, and cutting-edge hubs to draw traffic from all over the world.
Emirates alone transported 55.6 million passengers in 2025, more than four times the number from twenty years earlier, making Dubai the busiest international airport on the planet.
European and American competitors looked on with a mix of envy and annoyance, accusing them of competing on an “uneven playing field” thanks to alleged state subsidies.
Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith put it bluntly: “When the ground isn’t level, it’s easy to have new planes and fantastic airports.”
The shock of war
The outbreak of the Iranian conflict changed everything within hours, Bloomberg notes. Iranian and Iraqi airspace was closed, thousands of flights were canceled or diverted, and Middle Eastern airlines found themselves in serious trouble. Overall long-haul capacity dropped sharply.
For Western carriers, it was as if a space on the board suddenly opened up: an opportunity to seize before the wind shifted again.
The immediate response of European airlines
Lufthansa, British Airways, and Air France-KLM did not waste time. Already last month, they redeployed aircraft on alternative routes to India, Thailand, and Singapore, capturing passengers seeking new options.
Market share gains are still modest, but the intention is clear: to turn a temporary advantage into something more lasting.
Lufthansa’s Chief Financial Officer, Till Streichert, explicitly spoke of “absolute potential” to shift capacity toward Asia on a more stable basis.
However, it is not a simple operation: single-aisle aircraft used on Gulf routes are not suitable for longer flights to Asia, new wide-body aircraft have waiting lists of years, and opening a route requires months of planning among slots, schedules, and personnel.
Winners and losers
Bloomberg’s analysis of wide-body flights from 21 major airlines, comparing the month before and after the war’s start using Flightradar24 data, shows a clear picture.
In the United States, United Airlines and Delta increased long-haul capacity by 11% and 12% respectively, adding flights to Europe and new routes for affluent American tourists.
In Europe, gains are smaller but significant. Turkish Airlines, thanks to its favorable geographic position, gained market share, while Qatar Airways was the most penalized.
The rest of the Middle East lost overall capacity, although the loss was not uniform.
The fuel problem
One of the heaviest brakes is the spike in fuel prices caused by the war.
European airlines, already exposed, must decide whether to raise fares – risking losing newly gained passengers – or absorb costs to maintain competitiveness.
American carriers are even more vulnerable, although in March they benefited from a surge in last-minute bookings before price increases were reflected in tickets.
Lufthansa has already prepared crisis plans that could include grounding some aircraft in case of fuel shortages.
Stock market reactions
Investors have shown no leniency, Bloomberg emphasizes. Since the war began, Lufthansa shares have lost 17%, IAG (owner of British Airways) 13%, and Air France-KLM even 27%.
Morgan Stanley and UBS have cut price targets on several European airlines, citing rising energy costs.
The message is clear: the market sees the opportunity but fears it is too brief and too costly.
Logistical and geopolitical difficulties
Beyond fuel, there are structural problems. Flying between Asia and Europe was already complicated since 2022 due to Russian airspace closure after the Ukraine invasion.
Now, with Iran and Iraq out of play, planes are forced to pass through narrow corridors over Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts emphasize that Asian airlines – which can still fly over Russia – remain more competitive.
Singapore Airlines has added flights to London and Melbourne, Cathay Pacific to Paris, Zurich, and London, Air India and Qantas are increasing capacity toward Europe.
The risk, according to Conroy Gaynor of Bloomberg Intelligence, is that too much capacity ends up on the Atlantic without sufficient demand to absorb it.
The forecasts
All experts agree on one point: Gulf carriers have certainly not abandoned their global ambitions. “They have not set aside their dreams of being global hubs,” Rob Walker of ICF tells Bloomberg.
Richard Evans of Cirium is even more explicit: “I expect Gulf carriers to offer highly attractive fares to rebuild traffic. European carriers may only have a brief window to exploit high demand and elevated fares.”
In other words, those who are “making hay while the sun shines” today know that when the war ends, rivals will return hungry and aggressive on prices.
