Over the past twenty years, Latin America has been fertile ground for the left, which had established its power here as hegemonic. Today, that trend seems decidedly outdated.
The latest election rounds describe a clear shift to the right, security-focused, anti-establishment, and often Trumpian, going far beyond a simple alternation of power.
It is not just a change of political color: it is a continental realignment that affects security, economic model, welfare, and international positioning.
Analysts and observers wonder whether we are facing a coordinated phenomenon capable of permanently reshaping the face of the region.
According to Latinobarómetro pollsters cited by ISPI, the share of voters identifying with the right or center-right is the highest in over twenty years.
At the center of it all is a pressing demand for order and concrete results, in a context of rampant violence and disillusionment with traditional politics. It is this drive that has brought leaders like Javier Milei, José Antonio Kast, Nayib Bukele to success and, most recently, led Abelardo de la Espriella to prevail in the first round of the presidential elections in Colombia last Sunday.
The demand for order at all costs
The main engine of this shift is security, perceived as an absolute priority. Cocaine production in Latin America has tripled in the last decade, cartels have fragmented becoming more aggressive, and the continent is no longer just a transit zone but also an internal consumption market.
This has transformed entire territories into battlegrounds for control of ports, routes, and logistical hubs, with violence reaching record levels.
In this scenario, the promise of a “hard hand” becomes politically winning. Citizens’ willingness to accept authoritarian measures grows, provided they restore lost order.
The most admired model is Bukele’s in El Salvador, whose support crosses national borders and is cited as an example by numerous candidates.
According to United Nations data reported by ISPI, Latin America, while representing only 8% of the world’s population, concentrates about 30% of global homicides. It is therefore not surprising that security is, in many countries, the primary concern of voters, surpassing even the economy and unemployment.
The verdict of the polls
The electoral results of the last two years confirm this trend with impressive regularity.
In Argentina, Milei won the presidential election hands down and consolidated his mandate by winning the 2025 midterm legislative elections decisively, despite scandals and economic difficulties, as reported by the BBC. Argentinians, especially the younger ones, seem to have chosen the uncertainty of change rather than a return to the Peronist past.
In Bolivia, Rodrigo Paz ended two decades of socialist MAS dominance, riding the deep economic crisis, scarcity of dollars, fuel, and accumulated disappointment towards Evo Morales and his heirs, as detailed by the New York Times.
In Honduras, Nasry Asfura brought the right back to power with a program focused on security, fighting drug trafficking, job creation, and an explicit realignment with Washington, according to Reuters.
The case of Chile remains one of the most emblematic. Kast’s election at the end of 2025 represented a true symbolic break: it is the most radical right in government since the return to democracy after Pinochet.
Kast has never hidden his closeness to some aspects of the military legacy, and his victory signals that, for many Chileans, that taboo has fallen in the face of growing insecurity.
Even the former democratic “oasis” of Costa Rica has shifted to the right. The victory of populist Laura Fernández at the beginning of 2026 shows how much drug trafficking has changed everything, turning the country from a simple corridor into a cocaine logistics hub, with a surge in homicides that alarmed the population. Fernández also prevailed on the promise to build new maximum-security prisons modeled after Bukele’s, as reported by the Guardian.
Closing the circle, last Sunday in Colombia, de la Espriella – a criminal lawyer without government experience, nicknamed “El Tigre” – obtained 43.7% in the first round of the presidential elections, leaving behind left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, protégé of outgoing president Gustavo Petro, ahead of the runoff.
A declared admirer of Trump and Milei, de la Espriella focused his campaign on public order, mega-prisons, relentless fight against crime, and defense of traditional family values.
The Colombian vote, ten years after the peace agreements with the FARC, was read as a referendum on Petro’s progressive policies and confirms that the rightward shift is now a continental phenomenon.
Economy, markets, and Trump’s blessing
Alongside security, the economic factor plays a decisive role. After a long phase of weak growth and stagnation, the new leaders promise to reduce the size of the state, cut bureaucracy, and attract private investment.
Financial markets have reacted enthusiastically, interpreting the rise of the right as the start of a more business-friendly cycle, notes Bloomberg.
On the geopolitical level, Donald Trump’s return to power has strengthened these governments. Instead of provoking an anti-imperialist reaction, it has favored leaders who declare themselves his allies.
Trump’s inclinations were felt immediately. The financial bailout of Argentina, pressure on Beijing for control of the Panama Canal, intervention in Venezuela with Maduro’s removal, and the assault on the Cuban stronghold have redefined hemispheric relations, as highlighted by CNN.
Trump, CNN emphasizes, is trying to bring the entire region back into the American orbit, even at the cost of using muscular methods combined with explicit warnings and threats.
Not just ideology
As Antonella Mori, head of Latin America at ISPI, points out, behind this wave there is not so much a mass ideological conversion as a deep fatigue.
Organized crime, drug trafficking, migratory flows especially from Venezuela, and endemic corruption have eroded trust in left-wing governments.
The growing weight of evangelical Christianity has also brought value issues such as abortion, family, and gender identity to the center of the debate.
A lasting wave or just a pendulum?
This shift does not create a monolithic bloc. Many conservative governments maintain elements of social spending, more out of political necessity than conviction.
However, the common thread is clear: security, economic growth, and stability are prioritized, when necessary, over broader democratic guarantees, as observed by the New York Times.
It remains to be seen whether what we are witnessing is a structural change or a classic Latin American pendulum.
The next test will be this Sunday in Peru, where according to polls the left-wing presidential candidate Roberto Sánchez and his conservative challenger Keiko Fujimori remain in a statistical dead heat, as reported by Reuters.
But the most important test will be in Lula’s Brazil, which seeks a fourth term in an increasingly hostile regional context.
