(L’Opinion, Marc Vignaud, April 15, 2026)
The preparation of the 2027 budget is entering its most delicate phase as the government must submit to the European Commission by April 22 the new public finance trajectory, with a deficit target for 2027 still to be defined in a context marked by the war in the Middle East and just months before the presidential elections.
Economy Minister Roland Lescure has only marginally revised the growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9% and inflation to 1.9%, but uncertainty remains high and prevents improving the deficit target set at 5% for this year, despite the better-than-expected result in 2025 thanks to extraordinary non-tax revenues.
The new European rules, focused on controlling spending growth rather than reducing the deficit, leave France only 20 billion euros of room to increase public spending in 2027 net of debt interest; within this limited amount, however, there must be space for the additional 6.5 billion for military rearmament, the already planned increases for security, justice, and research, as well as the natural dynamics of healthcare and pensions, leaving just 11 billion for all other public policies and making a mix of spending cuts and new tax increases inevitable.
Revision of macroeconomic assumptions.
“Last Friday the government asked the High Council of Public Finances for new growth and inflation assumptions for 2026 in a context marked by the war in the Middle East. Economy and Finance Minister Roland Lescure has for now decided to minimally revise the growth forecast for this year, bringing it to 0.9% against the initial budget’s 1%. As for inflation, Bercy hopes for a limited increase to 1.9% in 2026 compared to the previous 1.3%.”
Constraints imposed by European rules.
“The new European rules provide a maximum amount for the increase in public spending net of debt charges. This ceiling cannot be exceeded unless additional spending is offset by tax increases. Public Accounts Minister David Amiel reiterates that any aid measures for businesses and families facing rising energy prices will have to be financed by additional savings.”
The impact of rearmament on maneuvering room.
“From now until 2030, Emmanuel Macron and Sébastien Lecornu have planned to increase military spending by an additional 36 billion euros. In 2027, this will represent an additional 6.5 billion compared to the previous military programming law. Adding the planned increases for security, justice, and research, only 11 billion more than in 2026 remain for all other public policies.”
The need for painful choices.
“This means that the 2027 budget cannot be closed without a mix of tax increases and spending efforts. Public Accounts Minister David Amiel does not hide it: painful choices will have to be made to avoid a new surge in public debt. In the coming years, we will have to make major budgetary decisions. Investments in our country’s independence, military, energy, and technology, for the future, must always be the ones we prioritize.”
The pre-election context.
“All this remains to be translated into a budget, in a pre-election context and unprecedented division in the Assembly. Just months before the elections, it looks unlikely that the Socialist Party will reach an agreement with the central bloc. One solution could be to pass a special law, as in 2025 and 2026, or to sell a blank year for the first semester, charged to the next president of the Republic and their majority to confirm or not this choice.”
(Excerpt from the newsletter by Giuseppe Liturri)
