Teresa Coratella is an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations and an expert on Eastern Europe. What does Orbán’s defeat tell us about the possibility that authoritarian leaders can lose power, despite attempts to subjugate the media, judiciary, and businesses?
Viktor Orbán’s defeat marks a true turning point for the democratic process, not only in Hungary but across the entire European Union.
The very high voter turnout, nearly 80 percent of Hungarian citizens, represented a real call to vote aimed at overturning the system of corruption, scandals, and power built by Orbán over the past sixteen years.
This does not mean, of course, that Péter Magyar’s path will be smooth or easy. On the contrary, the system built by Orbán — based on control and subjugation of the media, judiciary, and businesses — will take a long time to dismantle.
It will be a complex process because Magyar will need to find an effective political language to explain to citizens the decisions that will be made in the coming months.
There is also a crucial factor: Orbán has declared that he will continue to work for Hungary’s future from the opposition. What does this mean? What will the implications be? And above all, which alliances can he count on? Will he continue to seek external support from countries like Russia and China?
These are key questions that show how Magyar will not have an easy political life.
Also in Poland, in 2023, a moderate and pro-European right-wing led by Donald Tusk returned to power after the conservative populism phase of PiS. However, the legacy of the previous system has not disappeared. With what consequences?
Poland is the mirror in which Magyar should look. Not by chance, the Hungarian leader has declared that his first official visit abroad will be to Warsaw.
Why? Because the Polish case shows that democratic elections that bring a moderate and pro-European government back to power — as happened in 2023 — are not sufficient by themselves to bring a country back onto the European path and to the center of political protagonism.
In Poland, some time after the elections, Prime Minister Tusk still faces significant difficulties in dismantling the power and control system built by the PiS governments.
These difficulties have obvious consequences. Polls show that Polish citizens do not express the level of satisfaction that Tusk would have expected.
Many structures inherited from previous governments remain in place, especially regarding the rule of law and minority rights.
These are still open issues, on which Brussels maintains constant attention.
Magyar should look at the Polish model and also learn from the mistakes made by Tusk, particularly in managing coalition allies, who have not always proven to be such and who have not contributed to implementing the reforms announced during the electoral campaign.
For this reason, Magyar will have to pay great attention to internal dynamics and develop a political strategy capable of explaining to citizens the necessity of the decisions that will be made.
(Excerpt from Appunti)
