Already forced by his roles as Foreign Minister and Vice President of the Council to deal with wars, little wars – as American President Donald Trump calls them when talking about Lebanon – and truces hanging by a thread, Antonio Tajani could have been spared at least those at home or within the party, so to speak. Which, I fear, are wearing down his nervous system, and somewhat also his political image. Which had risen so much in recent months as to push him unofficially from behind the scenes into the race for the Quirinale, succeeding Sergio Mattarella in three years, in case of a center-right electoral victory next year. He was imagined as the most palatable candidate, or less unpalatable on the left. Where instead now, in the euphoria of the referendum victory against the constitutional reform of the judiciary, they think they can play the Colle game all by themselves. And they don’t even make it a secret, except for a few people of some experience – from Romano Prodi to Goffredo Bettini and Fausto Bertinotti – who advise caution, moderation, and so on, not automatically considering a referendum result, however significant like last month’s, transferable to a general election round.
Tajani, as I said, is dealing with a cold war – let’s call it that to borrow the image from a past lived by my friend Antonio as a journalist – inside Forza Italia, still directly inherited from the late founder Silvio Berlusconi, who when alive had already offloaded all the party troubles that annoyed him onto him.
Before the elections, no one is interested, I believe, in replacing the secretary for fear of missing the goal they cleverly assigned him and which he, with some imprudence, accepted. It is a return to 20 percent of the first elections faced by the newly founded party in 1994. A 20 percent then rising to 30 in a few months, when voters returned to vote but for the European Parliament.
From 9 percent, a little more or less than today, in continuous competition with Matteo Salvini’s League for second place in the center-right electoral ranking, it will objectively be difficult to jump to 20, or thereabouts. And so poor Tajani’s party friends, as the Christian Democrats also called themselves in their golden days, even in eternal internal competition under the banners of their respective factions, will be able to present him the bill. And claim his succession betting, among other things, on the help, little help, and so on from Marina Berlusconi, or brother Pier Silvio, or both. Then I believe even the always active, very active, vigilant Gianni Letta, whom reports and behind-the-scenes stories today say is engaged in protecting the Forza Italia secretary’s relations with the Berlusconi family, will have difficulty helping Tajani.
The most paradoxical aspect of Tajani’s situation in his party, and of his co-in-law Paolo Barelli at the presidency of the Chamber group, at least up to the moment I write, is the more than creeping contestation of the greatest merit he claims. Which is the increase in memberships. And consequently of the fees that help, among other things, the party to depend less on the Berlusconi family.
Rather than a merit, perhaps precisely in the perspective of less dependence on the Berlusconis, this seems to be experienced within the party as a risk. More than the members, votes are claimed in a polemical spirit, of which it is said and written, insinuated, jinxed that they could end up being fewer than the membership cards. Save, please, soldier Tajani.
