Peace talks between the United States and Iran scheduled for yesterday in Islamabad, Pakistan, collapsed within hours due to a double defection: Donald Trump canceled at the last moment the mission of his main envoys, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left the Pakistani capital before the Americans arrived.
As the New York Times writes, Trump stated that “they can call me” and that “we have all the cards in hand. We have won everything.”
The BBC emphasizes that, despite the indefinite extension of the ceasefire decided by Trump himself a few days ago, the gaps between the two parties remain huge on nuclear issues, enriched uranium stockpiles, and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
ABRUPT CANCELLATION OF TALKS IN ISLAMABAD
The direct negotiations, already scheduled for Saturday, fell through when Trump ordered his special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner not to depart.
As reported by the Financial Times, Trump wrote on his platform Truth Social: “I just canceled the trip of my representatives to Islamabad to meet the Iranians. Too much time wasted traveling, too much work!”
A few minutes after the cancellation, according to Trump himself, Iran sent a new proposal “much better” but still “not sufficient.”
The president added that the expected Iranian interlocutors were not of adequate rank: “We will not travel 15-16 hours to meet people nobody has ever heard of.”
On the same day, Minister Araghchi, after two hours of talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir, left Islamabad bound for Oman, as reported by the Associated Press. In a post on X, he described the visit as “very fruitful” but added: “We shared Iran’s position on a workable framework to permanently end the war on Iran. We await to see if the US is truly serious about diplomacy.”
According to Iranian state media cited by the Guardian, Araghchi will return to Islamabad today with other delegates after consultations in Tehran.
THE UNITED STATES’ POSITION
Trump repeatedly reiterated the American hardline stance. As the New York Times, the president declared: “We have won everything,” and Iran, he added, must give up its entire nuclear program, hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, and relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz.
In a post on Truth Social reported by CNBC, he highlighted “the enormous internal struggle and confusion within their ‘leadership.’ No one knows who is in charge, not even them.” Trump also criticized the travel costs and invited the Iranians to “call” directly.
The White House maintains the naval blockade on Iranian ports and has ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any vessel that lays mines in the Strait. As the Financial Times points out, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that waivers for purchasing Iranian oil will not be renewed and that Iranian production risks stopping within a few days.
The Trump administration calculates that the Iranian economy will not withstand the blockade for long, while the US can afford to wait until the midterm elections.
IRAN’S POSITION
Tehran has responded firmly to the American positions. President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a phone call with Pakistani Prime Minister cited by Reuters, stated that Iran “will not enter negotiations imposed under pressure, threats, and blockade.” He added that the US naval blockade “has sown distrust” and contradicts the American willingness to dialogue.
Araghchi reiterated Iran’s “red lines” and ruled out direct meetings as long as the blockade persists. The Iranians also denied internal divisions: as reported by the BBC, Pezeshkian, Qalibaf, and Araghchi issued joint statements to refute Trump’s accusations of “internal clashes.”
Tehran insists that any agreement must include the immediate removal of the naval blockade and recognition of Iran’s right to enrichment for peaceful purposes.
THE ROLE OF PAKISTANI MEDIATION
Pakistan has played a central facilitating role. Islamabad hosted the first round of direct talks two weeks ago, then led by Vice President JD Vance, and has continued to relay messages.
As the Associated Press writes, Prime Minister Sharif and Army Chief Munir met Araghchi for two hours. However, Iran made it clear from the start that talks would remain indirect, with Pakistan as an intermediary. The BBC notes that Islamabad had requested the extension of the ceasefire precisely to favor this new round, but the double abandonment on Saturday nullified the efforts.
CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION
From a military standpoint, the conflict is in a state of armed stalemate. As summarized by the New York Times, the United States has demonstrated overwhelming superiority; however, the theocratic regime remains in power and maintains operational control over the Strait of Hormuz, drastically limiting traffic.
Iran attacked three ships last week, while the US intercepted 37 vessels of the Iranian shadow fleet and rerouted traffic.
The ceasefire, unilaterally extended by Trump this week, has halted the most intense fighting, but the naval blockade persists. The Iranian joint military command has warned that any American “aggressive action” will receive a “strong response.”
Meanwhile, Iran has resumed commercial flights from Tehran to Istanbul, Muscat, and Medina, a sign of partial normalization.
UNRESOLVED ISSUES
The central issues remain unchanged for decades, the New York Times points out: the scale of the uranium enrichment program, the fate of the already enriched uranium stockpile, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iranian missile program along with support for regional proxies.
The US demands complete denuclearization; Iran refuses to give up its right to peaceful nuclear energy use.
The Strait blockade has caused the largest oil supply shock in history according to the IEA cited by Bloomberg. As the BBC concludes, the confrontation has turned into a test of endurance: the US is betting on the collapse of the Iranian economy, Tehran is betting on internal resilience and international pressure on energy prices.
For now, the ceasefire holds, but diplomacy is on standby.
