What do the two wars in Iran, the one in 2025 that lasted a few days and the one in 2026 that lasted a few months, have to do with the legendary AI table?
Apparently, nothing. In reality, a lot.
Politicians, academics, the fedoras with double surnames, generals loaded with tin medals, all proudly analog and, therefore, unknowingly out of the new world, have compared them to the criminal, analog Putinist invasion of Ukraine, dismissing it as yet another defeat of warmongering America. Let’s be clear, it’s all true: for eighty years America (both Dems and Reps) has lost, militarily, all wars, but not the (hidden) goal of defending, at all costs, the dollarization of the world. It lost military leadership years ago when, constantly living beyond its means, it discovered it was so indebted that it no longer had the money to invest in war.
Now its only alternative for leadership is to defend dollarization and, at the same time, find a military-economic agreement with the only other space power, China. To continue dominating the world, albeit in condominium with the Chinese.
The European Patriciate mocks and, from its point of view as a mere analyst, is right. What kind of agreement is one that provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which, before the war, was already open, and passage was toll-free? And then, the so-called regime change, with the popular uprising, did not happen. Is it the usual cardboard Trump farce?
Apparently yes, but I suggest reflecting: what is meant by a people’s revolution? All the so-called revolutions of the 19th and 20th centuries were actually not revolutions but mere revolts, and not of the plebs, but of young patricians against their fathers and grandfathers. In this sense, ’68 was paradigmatic: those who passed themselves off as popular revolutionaries twenty years later we found as notaries, academics, politicians, newspaper editors, all having remained rigorously patricians, while the plebs, for whom they said they fought, continued to live, miserably, on the outskirts of power. The patrician ’68 was a cultured farce, I can say it because I lived it, all and in depth, as a plebeian of course, becoming only twenty years later a high-born patrician, re-encountering those same young patricians who had pushed us out, with kicks and punches, from our workshops, to march behind their ignoble banners.
America and Israel, after the cinematic assassination of senior Khamenei, even in the palace-home-office-dining room, and his top gang, expected the uprising of the entire people, as guaranteed by Mossad and CIA. In reality, nothing happened. Why?
The reason is the usual one for two thousand years. The young people who had been protesting for years to free themselves from the Ayatollah Regime were not the children of the people, but the children of the patricians perpetually in power, as it was for Maidan, for the Arab revolutions, etc. Could it be that in Iran the legendary people were those of the Pasdaran, indeed composed of the children of the plebs, who had revolted sixty years earlier against the corrupt and criminal Patriciate of the Shah?
Let’s try to read these two mini wars which, let us always remember, are only celestial, thus against civilians, assuming the principles underlying the IDEA + AI + NCS formula – that is, reasoning by scenarios, deciding by counter-intuition, speaking and writing in metaphors – premising the typical strategic assumption of the 21st century: “At the center of everything are no longer Ideology or Religion, but Business.”
From this perspective, reasoning as a screenwriter and in counter-intuition, it is certain that in one or two decades, today’s legendary Strait of Hormuz will lose all its strategic value, because in a world dominated by business, therefore not by ideologized politicians but by private shipowners and insurers, bottlenecks, of any kind and species, cannot exist, neither on land nor at sea.
The victory of the Ayatollahs, which the European press babbles about, interviewing academics, fedoras, generals, is actually their strategic defeat, because in the world of business and AI it does not matter to own a good, but to have the power to set its price, find someone to buy it, manage its logistics. With AI, ideology is patrician fluff, it is no longer power.
