Mali is experiencing one of the most dramatic moments in recent years. A coordinated offensive by Tuareg rebels and jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda has overwhelmed the north of the country, forcing the Russian forces of the Africa Corps, the structure that replaced the Wagner group, into a humiliating retreat and seriously endangering the military junta in Bamako.
While the Russians struggle to demonstrate their effectiveness on the ground, the African country located in the heart of the Sahel risks sliding into even deeper chaos, with the capital threatened and the civilian population trapped between violence, instability, and revenge.
Russian retreat
Last weekend, rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), of Tuareg ethnicity, together with fighters from Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, launched a lightning offensive at dawn on Kidal. Within a few hours, they forced the Russian paramilitaries stationed in this symbolic and strategic desert city to choose between surrender and death.
As reported by the Financial Times, the Russians retreated, leaving behind images of defeat that went around the world. Kidal had been recaptured three years ago precisely thanks to Russian support and represented the only real victory on the ground that Moscow could boast in Mali.
The paramilitaries of the Africa Corps negotiated an evacuation corridor with the Tuareg rebels, being escorted out of the city. Many Malian soldiers, however, remained trapped.
Operational difficulties of the Russian forces
The Russian forces, estimated at around 2,000 men, are encountering obvious structural problems. Mali is immense – twice the size of Ukraine – and the Russians suffer from a chronic lack of intelligence, surveillance, and information networks on the territory, unlike what the French and Americans could do in the past, who have already been expelled by the coup junta that now barely holds the reins of the country.
As highlighted by the BBC, the Russian paramilitaries do not have the necessary capabilities to effectively monitor militant movements in the desert. Added to this are coordination problems with the Malian army, equipment not always suitable for desert warfare, and cautious management that contrasts with the aggressive image Wagner had built in the past.
Analysts also note that the indiscriminate violence attributed to the Russians has pushed many young people into the arms of jihadists and separatists, worsening the situation. “They haven’t solved the problem. They have made it worse,” commented an expert cited by the Financial Times.
Heavy blows to the Bamako junta
The offensive did not stop in the north. The rebels also struck Kati, near the capital, killing Defense Minister Sadio Camara – a key figure in the alliance with Moscow – and seriously wounding the head of intelligence services.
As reported by Reuters, these coordinated attacks have deeply shaken the military regime led by Colonel Assimi Goïta.
In Bamako, anger towards the Russians is growing, accused of abandoning Malian soldiers to their fate in Kidal. “They left them behind like rats in a trap,” denounced a former official.
Russian propaganda tries to minimize the defeat, speaking of a “tactical withdrawal of a remote garrison,” but images of paramilitaries fleeing escorted by Tuaregs are eroding the image of power Moscow had sought to build in Africa.
A besieged country
Mali is now more fragile than ever, emphasizes Al Jazeera. The Tuareg separatist groups and JNIM jihadists, once rivals, have found a tactical agreement to strike the common enemy: the junta and its Russian allies.
JNIM has announced the siege of the capital and its fighters continue to move in the suburbs of Bamako. In the north, the rebels promise to advance towards Timbuktu and Gao.
The civilian population pays the highest price: massacres, violence, forced recruitment, and a humanitarian crisis that worsens day by day.
The country has already been marked by over a decade of instability, but this coordinated offensive risks plunging Mali into a new phase of open war, with the real risk of territorial fragmentation.
Consequences for the Russian strategy in Africa
This setback calls into question the entire Russian military venture in the Sahel. Moscow had presented the Africa Corps as a more flexible and efficient partner compared to France.
Now the image of invincibility is cracked. As several analysts highlight, the Russians are probably reconsidering their mission: from territorial control to simply protecting the regime and critical infrastructure.
For the moment, however, the Bamako junta has few alternatives. Despite frustrations, it seems destined to remain clinging to Russian support, at least in the short term. The risk is that a further weakening of the regime opens the way to new coups or a jihadist advance towards the south of the country.
