After three and a half months of alternating war that has shaken the Middle East, disrupted oil routes, and caused energy prices to soar, the United States and Iran finally seem close to a concrete agreement.
A preliminary memorandum of understanding could be signed in the coming days, paving the way not only for the end of direct fighting but also for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the gradual easing of sanctions, and more complex negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
The Pakistani mediation, supported by Qatar and other regional actors, has played a leading role in overcoming the stalemate of recent weeks.
However, many shadows remain: divergences over the timing and modalities of economic benefits for Iran, the fate of Lebanon, and deep-rooted mutual distrust. As often happens in these negotiations, optimistic messages alternate with blunt denials and public warnings.
Pakistani Mediation
Pakistani mediation is proving particularly effective and perhaps decisive at this stage.
As reported by the Financial Times, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced yesterday that a final agreed text has been reached. Sharif emphasized on X that, despite disinformation campaigns orchestrated by those who want to sabotage the agreement, peace has never been closer than at this moment.
Regional sources cited by the Associated Press describe a central role for the Pakistani army, led by Field Marshal Asim Munir, with active support from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar.
This collective effort has kept communication channels open even in the tensest moments of recent days, when exchanges of fire and threats risked derailing everything.
Both the BBC and Al Jazeera highlight how Pakistani diplomacy helped bring the two parties to a shared text, overcoming mutual accusations and leaks that complicated the process.
The effectiveness of this mediation will, however, be measured in the coming days, when the process moves from the declaration of intent to signing and especially to implementation on the ground.
Towards the Signing of the MoU
The United States and Iran are close to signing a memorandum of understanding. This is confirmed convergently by both American and Iranian sources.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi openly stated that the agreement has never been so close, while at the same time urging the media to avoid speculation about the content so as not to compromise the final stages.
Donald Trump reposted Araghchi’s message on his social platform Truth, calling it very positive, as reported by Axios.
A senior U.S. administration official cited by the New York Times expressed growing optimism yesterday, moving from an estimated 75% probability of agreement reached in the morning to about 80-85% in the afternoon. However, he clarified that the final goal has not yet been reached.
The signing could take place in the coming days, perhaps in Geneva, with Vice President JD Vance leading the American delegation and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf for the Iranian side. According to Axios, Trump has floated the possibility of a signing as early as the weekend or at the latest Monday.
Terms of the Agreement
The preliminary agreement includes several key elements, although significant divergences remain on some of them.
As summarized by the New York Times based on informed sources, the memorandum of understanding will lead to the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the American naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports.
Iran commits to ensuring safe passage for commercial ships. As reported by the BBC, Tehran, however, claims the right to introduce a fee for services rendered, a position that remains under discussion with Washington.
The agreement provides for the extension of the ceasefire for 60 days, during which technical negotiations on the nuclear program will take place.
Within this framework, Iran will renew its commitment not to develop atomic weapons and will proceed with the destruction or delivery of enriched uranium in its possession, which will be removed from the country under a verification regime. Operational details, including the mechanisms for material removal and the future of nuclear facilities, will be defined during the 60 days of technical negotiation.
On the economic front, benefits for Tehran will be gradual and strictly linked to compliance with the commitments made. No immediate release of frozen funds is planned: sanctions relief and asset unblocking will occur in phases, only when concrete progress on the nuclear issue and other obligations is verified. In this way, the American administration intends to ensure that the agreement is based on results and not promises.
What Trump and Iranian Leaders Say
The reactions of both parties reflect both caution and the desire to present the agreement as a success.
Donald Trump has alternated between tough tones and positive signals: yesterday he accused Tehran of spreading distorted terms to the media, stating that they did not correspond to what was agreed in writing, and urged his interlocutors to quickly get in line. Shortly after, however, he relayed Araghchi’s optimistic message.
Vice President JD Vance emphasized that the agreement is structured to primarily protect American and allied interests, with economic benefits coming only in exchange for concrete actions by Iran.
On the Iranian side, Minister Araghchi appeared confident but firm on Tehran’s positions. He stated that the agreement will end the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. He confirmed that the memorandum of understanding is in the final stage of internal approval, with ongoing meetings among various institutions and the Supreme National Security Council. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei spoke of consensus reached on most issues.
Unresolved Issues
The Lebanese issue would also have been included in the framework of the agreement, at least on paper.
Araghchi stated that Tehran has conveyed to Washington the request for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and the cessation of attacks against Hezbollah.
The Associated Press highlights, however, that Israel is not a direct party to the negotiations and has strongly reiterated its position: it does not intend to withdraw from occupied areas in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, maintaining full freedom of action to protect its security interests.
American sources speak instead of a broader regional peace framework that should also include Israel, but Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz have expressed caution, insisting that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons.
As the Associated Press again points out, Katz stated in a separate note that Israel also expects the agreement to include the weakening of Iran’s missile program and its network of proxy groups.
